As a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer specializing in Russia, I’m often asked why the US doesn’t just take down Vladimir Putin.
The president of Russia is clearly a foul guy. To this point, of their barbaric 10-month war with Ukraine, Putin’s forces have bombed maternity wards, tortured civilians and kidnapped their babies, sending them by force to Russia. Its missiles hit vital infrastructure, leaving Ukrainians without electricity or drinking water in the face of freezing winter temperatures.
His illegal invasion has also led to a worldwide energy crisis and exacerbated soaring inflation in the West. American leaders are watching the conflict nervously, nervous that it would spiral into World War III.
For a lot of, eliminating Putin looks as if a simple solution. But while the US maintains a doctrine – albeit secret – that enables targeted killings of foreign nationals in exceptional cases, Washington will almost definitely not order the assassination of a Russian strongman. Listed below are three reasons.
![Long before he ruled Russia, Putin spent many years in the KGB, a fertile training ground for anti-assassination training.](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/12/vladmir-putin-young.jpg?w=682)
![Osama bin Laden is one of the few former al-Qaeda bosses to be assassinated by the United States in a top-secret counter-terrorist operation.](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/12/osama-bin-laden.jpg?w=1024)
First, the US Structure prohibits the use of deadly force outside of zones of armed conflict, unless used against a person who poses a concrete, imminent threat of significant harm to the United States and is engaged in hostilities against the homeland, and only as a final resort. Putin doesn’t meet this requirement.
It’s true that the Central Intelligence Agency has targeted the deaths of foreign leaders in the past. For instance, in the aftermath of the September 11 CIA terrorist attacks maintained a top-secret anti-terrorist assassination program against high-value targets comparable to al-Qaeda commanders. This covert mission, authorized by former President George W. Bush, was carried out by private paramilitary corporations that employ former Special Forces agents.
![former president George W. Bush oversaw a covert operation to kill senior al-Qaeda members, a rare example of a targeted assassination program run by the White House.](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/12/george-w-bush.jpg?w=1024)
![Former Cuban President Fidel Castro was one of the few world leaders targeted by the CIA during the Cold War. Such efforts were rebuffed when Gerald Ford entered the White House.](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/12/fidel-castro.jpg?w=1024)
From 1945 to around the Seventies, the CIA conducted covert operations targeting foreign leaders considered a threat to the US. Amongst the targets were Cuban leader Fidel Castro, Congo’s first prime minister Patrice Lumumba, Dominican dictator Rafael Trujillo, Indonesian president Sukarno and South Vietnamese president Ngo Dinh Diem. Deadly viruses, explosive cigars and other spy tactics were used.
Around 1954, the CIA had 58 names on its “A” hit list of individuals to be murdered in a secret $2.7 million program codenamed PBSSUCCESSto overthrow Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbentz. But following President Gerald Ford Executive Order 1976 which outlawed political assassinations by U.S. government employees, the agency largely got out of this dirty business. A 12 months earlier an 89 page report titled “Summary of the Facts – An Investigation into the CIA’s Involvement in Plans to Assassinate Foreign Leaders,” was faraway from the National Archives.
Secondly, even when the CIA were to acquire authorization for such an operation, it might be extremely difficult to execute. Putin and other people near him are under the constant protection of the Federal Security Service. Putin himself is protected by bodyguards from the Presidential Security Service, or “Men in Black”. The National Guard – or Rosgvardia – is accountable for the survival of the entire Putin regime.
Rosgvardia, a special unit composed of elite soldiers with a few years of experience in the security services and counterintelligence, is headed by, amongst others, Viktor Zolotov, a detailed ally of Putin and former KGB agent. In the early Nineteen Nineties, Zolotov was the bodyguard of Anatoly Sobchak, the then mayor of St. Petersburg, President Boris Yeltsin, and in fact Putin himself, who was Sobchak’s deputy mayor at the time. And it’s unlikely that anyone outside his very narrow circle could get near Putin.
![Putin's loyal confidant Viktor Zolotov leads the Rosgvardiya, an elite cadre of highly trained soldiers; personally watches over Putin's security.](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/12/vladimir-putin2.jpg?w=1024)
Third, as an agent with a few years of service in the KGB – one among the most brutal intelligence services in the world – Putin may be very prepared to aim on his own life and has probably devised various contingency plans to make sure his survival.
As a part of a hypothetical exercise in April, me and my skilled colleague, a military and intelligence psychiatrist, were asked: “If U.S. Special Forces were closing in on Putin, would he kill himself or give up?
“Neither,” we each replied.
![The CIA may have years of experience removing foreign leaders from power, but Putin has been preparing for such a threat all his political life.](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/12/cia.jpg?w=1024)
My colleague and I estimated that Putin would try to flee fairly than commit suicide or capitulate. The spymaster has probably developed multiple scenarios for his escape, and if plan A doesn’t work, he’ll execute plan B after which plan C.
Based on his psychological profile, Putin will fight fairly than hand over. His overconfidence and arrogance lead him to consider that he can outsmart anyone. If his life were at risk, he would probably immediately find an answer that nobody had considered before.
![Putin would rather fight or flee than commit suicide if his life was in danger, insiders say.](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/12/vladimir-putin3.jpg?w=1024)
As someone who almost definitely authorized several assassinations himself to eliminate his critics and political opponents, Putin all the time thinks ahead. like him once said“If you need to win, in every fight you need to fight to the end as if it were the last and decisive battle. You have got to assume there is not any turning back.”
Rebekah Koffler is president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, former DIA intelligence officer, and writer of Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America. Twitter: @Rebekah0132