Chinese President Xi Jinping throughout the signing ceremony on the Grand Kremlin Palace, March 21, 2023, Moscow, Russia. China was desperate to take the position of peace broker to finish the war in Ukraine, but on a regular basis it gave the impression to be allied with Moscow.
Associate | Getty Images | News Getty’s paintings
After months of apparent reluctance to have interaction with Kiev on the identical level as Moscow, China said on Wednesday it could send special representatives to Ukraine and hold talks with all sides to finish the conflict.
Chinese state media reported that President Xi Jinping told his Ukrainian counterpart President Volodymyr Zelensky in a phone call – the primary the leaders had for the reason that start of the war in February 2022 – that Beijing would concentrate on promoting peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
State media added that Beijing would seek a ceasefire as soon as possible to finish what China calls a “crisis” quite than a conflict.
Commenting on the call, which he described as “long and significant”, Zelensky said he believed it “will give a strong impetus to the event of our bilateral relations.”
The timing of the call – and China’s decision to send emissaries to Ukraine – has caused surprise amongst political and defense analysts, especially since Ukraine is widely known to be preparing to launch a large-scale counter-offensive against Russian forces to retake territory within the east and south.
Many analysts consider China is keen to contain the conflict before fighting escalates massively because the muddy spring season passes, allowing offensive operations to resume in earnest and Ukraine receiving more military equipment from its Western allies.
“The spring months are mainly coming to an end and it is time to begin counterattacking, so I believe China desires to be seen as a direct mediator ahead of this escalation,” Max Hess, a member of the Eurasia Program at CNBC’s Institute for Foreign Policy Research, said Thursday.
Such is the opinion of Oleksandr Musijenko, a military expert and head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies in Kiev. Nevertheless, he was surprised by the timing of China’s summons, as he expected that they might wait and see how the counter-offensive played out before intervening.
“I used to be convinced that China would wait for the outcomes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive after which probably propose something [on a cease-fire and peace talks]CNBC said Thursday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talks by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kiev, April 26, 2023.
Press Office of the President of Ukraine | Reuters
“But I believe the Russians are afraid of a future Ukrainian counter-offensive, they’re afraid that they’ll lose a part of the territory they currently occupy … ” he said.
China—Peace Broker or Ally?
China willingly took the position of a peace broker to finish the war, but gave the impression to be allied with Moscow all along, refusing to sentence the invasion, having frequent talks with Moscow, and having no direct diplomatic contact with Ukraine throughout the war – until now.
And when Xi visited Russia in March, he said he would hold a phone call with Kiev, but no arrangements were made, making yesterday’s announcement much more surprising.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted this on Thursday when he “welcomed” Xi and Zelensky’s talk, but noted that it did not change the proven fact that China still did not condemn the Russian invasion.
The Kremlin, for its part, said it welcomed anything that might bring an end to the conflict closer, but said it still had to attain the goals of its so-called Donbass in eastern Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a welcome ceremony ahead of Russia-China talks in Moscow, Russia, March 21, 2023. Analysts are generally skeptical about China’s position as a mediator and its ability to assist end the war’s conflict, questioning Beijing’s influence on Moscow.
Mikhail Tereshchenko | Sputnik | via Reuters
Analysts are generally skeptical about China’s position as a mediator and its ability to assist end the war, questioning Beijing’s influence over Moscow.
Musijenko said China did not seem to know the conflict, noting that it was “unbelievable” for Beijing to “call the war a political crisis.”
He was concerned that any ceasefire or peace agreement proposed by China would contain conditions proposed by Russia, reminiscent of changing territorial borders.
“Suspect” term
Analysts did not miss that China’s Wednesday phone call got here just days after last week’s diplomatic gaffe when its ambassador to France, Lu Shaye told French media that countries that were a part of the Soviet Union, reminiscent of Ukraine, had no status in international law.
The comment sparked outrage within the EU in addition to in Ukraine and other countries of the previous Soviet Union. China was forced to issue an announcement distancing itself from Lu’s comments, emphasizing that “China respects the status of the previous Soviet republics as sovereign countries after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.”
After the incident, Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the timing of Xi’s talks with Zelensky couldn’t be missed.
“The timing looks very suspicious given this incredible diplomatic faux pas/disaster of the Chinese ambassador in Paris commenting that post-Soviet states haven’t any right to exist,” Ash wrote in an email.
“Perhaps that was his real views on Ukraine, but I believe in a single interview he insulted the entire 14 non-Russian states that secured independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. This also applies to the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, on which China depends. for key goods. They need to be absolutely furious, just like a lot of the post-communist space, outside of Russia, in Emerging Europe,” he noted.
Ash said the gaffe can have caused immeasurable damage to constructing bridges with former Soviet states and showed a lack of knowledge that may very well be shared by those in Beijing, although just one official has shown this.
“This one comment undermined 30-odd years of very cautious Chinese diplomacy within the region,” Ash said, adding that it “actually shows that Chinese officials fundamentally misunderstand Europe.”