Protesters in Thailand with an indication calling for equal labor rights and fair elections at a Labor Day rally in Bangkok in 2023. Experts widely agree that pro-democracy groups are expected to perform well in light of deep-seated dissatisfaction with the current army-affiliated administration.
Lauren DeCicca | Getty’s paintings
As Thailand prepares for general elections later this month, fundamental issues resembling the minimum wage, farm subsidies and social welfare can be at the top of voters’ minds.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy is still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic – although tourism has recovered and unemployment has fallen below 1%, the country is facing a plethora of problems. Energy and electricity bills are high; the number of employers is still there below pre-pandemic levels; household debt levels are growing at an alarming rate; and the annual increase in per capita income was falling since 2018
That is why most political parties focus their campaigns on giveaways like subsidies and tax breaks – populist guarantees that economists fear will unbalance the country’s fiscal balance.
The candidates could be divided into two categories: parties supporting the pro-military establishment and the pro-democratic camp of the opposition factions.
The primary group includes the fledgling conservative United Thai Nation Party, led by Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha; Democratic Party (Thailand’s oldest conservative faction); and the military-supported ruling party of Palang Praharath. The second group consists of the social democratic Pheu Thai, led by former leader Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra; the progressive Forward Movement Party; and Bhumjaithai, pro-democratic but additionally pro-monarchy attire.
Experts widely agree that pro-democracy groups are expected to perform well in light of deep-seated dissatisfaction with the current military-linked administration. Ultimately, whoever wins will still need the support of an alliance of the monarchy and the military, which activists say obscures the prospect of free and fair elections.
Despite his weak position, Prayut’s return as prime minister can’t be ruled out, Syetarn Hansakul, an analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC.
“He can count on the support of the Senate (a complete of 250 votes) and the support of other allied parties,” she said. “If Prayut is confirmed as prime minister by the latest parliament, and not using a democratic mandate but with the help of an appointed senate, it could lead on to the return of street protests.”
“Thailand’s election end result stays very fluid and we consider it could prove otherwise from the polls,” DBS economists said in a recent report report. “There could also be delays in forming a latest government as a result of the prolonged time needed to agree a coalition, which makes policymaking tougher,” they warn.
Lots of freebies
The parties promise various information materials to appeal to voters.
United Thai Nation wants to extend farm subsidies and increase monthly allowances for holders of state welfare cards and the elderly. Pheu Thai goals to extend the minimum wage to 600 baht ($17.60) a day (from the current high of 354 baht), triple farmers’ income by 2027 and offer a one-time assistance of 10,000 baht in digital money. Move Forward wants to lift the each day minimum wage to 450 baht a day and expand social advantages. And Bhumjaithai is demanding a three-year moratorium on farmers’ debt, free solar panels and free life insurance for those over 60.
Few details have been provided on funding, which worries economists who say such policies will weigh on already strained public funds after significant fiscal support during the pandemic. Public debt has exceeded 60% of gross domestic product since fiscal 12 months 2022 and is expected to extend in 2023 Coface warned you report.
recent evaluation by the think tank Recent Delhi Observer Research Foundation described the populist guarantees as “a brief solution that can provide limited respite to indebted residents without encouraging them to change into self-reliant.” The commentary refers to household debt, which at the end of 2022 amounted to 86.8% of GDP.
Given the tight fiscal space, DBS expects it’s going to be “difficult” for the newly elected government to totally deliver on its guarantees. As well as, any post-election demonstrations could further damage economic activity and investor confidence.
Other hot button issues
Protests erupted during Prayut’s reign in 2020-2021 over calls for reforms to the monarchy, especially the infamous law of lèse-majesté. Only the Move Forward party has campaigned to vary the defamation law, while Pheu Thai has previously said it could consider discussing it in parliament.
Realistically, nonetheless, unless Move Forward heads the government – an unlikely scenario for political observers – monarchy-related laws are usually not expected to be on the latest prime minister’s agenda.
Recent protests have exposed issues of social justice and income disparity – a subject that the latest government cannot ignore, said Hansakul of the EIU. The subsequent leader can be called on to “create fairer rules of the game that allow small and medium-sized businesses to compete higher, expand the social safety net for society, improve the quality of education and empower the workforce to fulfill the challenges of a more technology-driven world,” she said.
Cannabis regulation is one other pressing issue for the next administration. In 2022, Thailand decriminalized the cultivation and licensed sale of marijuana for medicinal purposes, but many politicians need to reverse the rule. Pheu Thai plans to limit the use of the plant to medical and research purposes, while Move Forward wants the herb to be treated as an intoxicant. Only the Bhumjaithai Party seems serious about developing the market.
When asked about the possibilities of marijuana being recriminalized, Viroj NaRanong, director of
“The present discourse utilized by almost every major party is medicinal marijuana, the principal difference could be how lax each government could be in its management,” he said.
He added that even when the ultra-conservative United Nation Party of Thailand wins, it’s going to not have the option to form a coalition government without the Bhumjaithai Party, explaining that the United Nation of Thailand could have to tolerate the latter’s flagship policy of promoting cannabis, because it does in the current government.