Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the signing ceremony after the talks within the Kremlin in Moscow, March 21, 2023.
Vladimir Astapkovich | AFP | Getty’s paintings
According to political analysts, China faces an “intimidating” challenge when it comes to trying to negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. his allies in Moscow.
Beijing – which has sent representatives to Ukraine, Russia and several other European countries this week to lay the groundwork for peace talks – has a special interest in Moscow not looking “defeated” in any deal, because it could backfire effect in Beijing, analysts note.
“Russia’s total defeat doesn’t serve China’s interests, especially if it leads to it [President Vladimir] the downfall of Putin,” Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asian program on the German Marshall Fund (GMF) in the US, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Russia is an increasingly necessary partner for us [Chinese President] Xi Jinping. There isn’t any other country that may help undermine US leadership on this planet and revise the international order,” she added.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping leave after a reception after talks on the Moscow Kremlin on March 21, 2023.
Pawel Byrkin | AFP | Getty’s paintings
China is stepping up efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table with China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, who’s visiting Europe this week to discuss “a political solution to the Ukraine crisis,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.
Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and after months of devastating war, the conflict is about to enter a latest phase, with Western-backed Ukraine set to launch a massive counter-offensive to reclaim occupied territories within the east and south of the country.
China is widely believed to have supported Russia through the war by refusing to condemn the invasion and pledging to deepen strategic cooperation with the country, although Moscow is seen by most analysts as a subordinate, junior partner in the connection.
Certainly one of the essential aspects linking China and Moscow is a shared and deep-seated dislike and distrust of the West, with each countries critical of US dominance in global affairs.
Against this backdrop, Moscow and Beijing remained noticeably close throughout the war, with Xi and Putin having quite a few phone calls and a state visit in March. Xi, however, didn’t call his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky for the primary time until April.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talks by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kiev, April 26, 2023.
Press Office of the President of Ukraine | Reuters
There isn’t any doubt that China wants an end to the war, seeing it as an unwelcome crisis affecting the worldwide economy. But it surely also incorporates a potential political threat to China, as a defeated Russia is seen as highly vulnerable to political instability, riots and even regime change.
Due to this fact, China’s efforts to make peace between Russia and Ukraine aren’t perceived as altruistic, but motivated by self-interest. This interest extends to ensuring that its neighbor and ally Russia doesn’t appear like it has been humiliated and “defeated” in any peace deal with Ukraine. Analysts note that by managing the negotiation process, China sees that this isn’t the case.
“All China’s peace efforts will definitely be a crucial face-saver,” Etienne Soula, an analyst on as little as possible, told CNBC, while persuading Ukrainians and their Western supporters to bury the hatchet.
Most significantly for China, a humiliated Russia would misrepresent its own ambitions to challenge the perceived hegemony of the West.
“China’s narrative of its own rise to the middle of worldwide governance is conditioned by the matching idea that Western democracies, and particularly the US, are irreversibly failing,” Soula said.
“For these countries to defeat one in all the world’s best autocrats, a nuclear-armed member of the Security Council, by proxy, even with no shoes on the bottom, can be a major setback for the story China is trying to tell the world concerning the future.”
CNBC contacted China’s foreign ministry for a response to the comments and up to now has received no response.
‘A frightening challenge’
China’s latest foray into the sector of worldwide diplomacy comes later the recent success of brokering a deal between Middle Eastern nemesis Saudi Arabia and Iran by which they agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies of their respective countries.
Repeating this achievement between Ukraine and Russia will likely be far more difficult, analysts say, noting that Beijing has a mountain to climb to persuade the 2 sides to reach an agreement when there’s a lot bad blood between them and the stakes are so high.
View of the cemetery where the fallen Ukrainian soldiers were buried, including Gennady Kowszyk, a soldier of the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, in Kharkov, Ukraine, February 16, 2023.
Sofia Bobok | Anadolu Agency | Getty’s paintings
Ukraine said any solution to the war must concentrate on withdrawing Russian troops from the occupied territories and restoring its territorial sovereignty, including returning the 4 regions that Russia annexed last September, in addition to Crimea, which was annexed in 2014 r. .
Meanwhile, Russia demands that Kiev recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the annexed regions and accept the independence of the pro-Russian separatist “republics” in Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Moscow also wants a “militarized” Ukraine, including a guarantee that it should never join NATO.
While there could also be some room for negotiation; Ukraine said it could consider, for instance, security guarantees from Western allies as an alternative of NATO membership; either side have little appetite for concessions, especially by way of territory.
In spite of everything, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial existence rely upon the consequence of the war, while Putin has probably staked his entire regime and Russia’s self-esteem on defeating Ukraine and its Western henchmen, who he claims want to “destroy” Russia.
“China’s recent success in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia shows that it has the power to navigate between long-term enemies. Nevertheless, mediation between Ukraine and Russia will likely be a far more difficult challenge,” said Cheng Chen, a professor of political science on the University of University at Albany, State University of Recent York, told CNBC.
“Since Xi explicitly mentioned the importance of sovereignty in a telephone conversation with Zelensky, it’s unlikely that China will side with Russia in demanding complete territorial concessions from Ukraine. Nevertheless, China will try to ensure that any deal that materializes doesn’t appear humiliating to Russia in any obvious way.”