People walk past the election campaign poster of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, May 25, 2023, Istanbul, Turkey. The country is holding its first presidential election after no candidate won greater than 50% of the vote within the May 14 elections.
Chris McGrath | Getty Images | News Getty’s paintings
Hundreds of thousands of Turks forged their votes on Sunday for the second time in two weeks to make your mind up the end result of the subsequent presidential race in Turkish history.
Powerful incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69, took on opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in what many described as essentially the most serious struggle in Erdogan’s political life and a possible death blow to his 20-year reign. But the primary round of voting – with a turnout of 86.2% – was a disappointment for the opposition, with Kilicdaroglu, 74, losing by around 5 percentage points.
Despite this, no candidate passed the 50% threshold required to win; and with Erdogan at 49.5% and Kilicdaroglu at 44.7%, a second round of elections was scheduled two weeks after the primary vote on May 14. The winner will lead a divided country in constant motion, a cost-of-living crisis, complex security issues, and – because the second largest army in NATO and a key mediator between Ukraine and Russia – an increasingly crucial role in global geopolitics.
Domestic analysts are almost certain of Erdogan’s victory.
“We expect Turkish President Erdogan to increase his rule right into a third decade through the runoff election on May 28, and our ratings-based prediction will give him an 87% probability of winning,” Hamish Kinnear, senior MENA analyst in danger evaluation firm Verisk Maplecroft , he wrote in a research memo.
In two short weeks, among the candidates’ campaign messaging modified dramatically, with each candidates doubling down on malicious accusations, hardened nationalism and scapegoating.
“Send All Refugees Home”
Kilicdaroglu, known for his more conciliatory, benign demeanor, made a staggering leap towards xenophobia and fear-mongering as a part of his election campaign strategy, capitalizing on Turkey’s widespread dissatisfaction with the country’s greater than 4 million refugees.
He promised to “send all refugees home” if elected, and accused Erdogan of flooding the country with them. He also claimed that Turkish cities can be on the mercy of criminal gangs and refugee mafias if Erdogan remained in power. The overwhelming majority of refugees in Turkey come from neighboring war-torn Syria.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the 74-year-old leader of the centre-left, pro-secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), gives a press conference in Ankara on May 15, 2023.
Bulent Kilic | afp | Getty’s paintings
Previously, Erdogan’s predominant rival ran on the platform of regaining economic stability, democratic values and higher relations with Europe and NATO.
Kilicdaroglu’s latest strategy appeared to be a response to the proven fact that Sinan Ogan, the nationalist party’s hard-line candidate, won just over 5% of the vote on May 14, essentially making him king. Whoever backed Ogan would likely win a potentially decisive portion of his voters – and despite Kilicdaroglu pumping up nationalist and anti-refugee rhetoric, Ogan ultimately backed Erdogan.
“Kilicdaroglu took a tougher stance on immigration and security ahead of the second round…that is unlikely to be enough,” Kinnear said.
Meanwhile, Erdogan’s supporters distributed quite a few fake posters and videos designed to make it appear as if Kilicdaroglu’s CHP party supported Kurdish militant groups that Ankara classifies as terrorists.
German news site DW reported that the posters were fakeciting Turkish fact-checking organization Teyit.org.
And in Tuesday’s TV interview, Erdogan pleaded guilty to displaying the falsified footage during his Kilicdaroglu election rallies that misrepresented this last convocation with Kurdish fighters.
In an unexpected twist, the far-right, anti-immigrant Victory Party party backed Kilicdaroglu on Wednesday due to his pledge to return refugees to Syria – splitting right-wing groups between the 2 presidential candidates.
“Now we have now two anti-refugee political leaders supporting rival candidates,” noted Ragip Soylu, head of the Turkish office on the Middle East Eye, in a Twitter post.
Economy, earthquakes
Erdogan’s continued and seemingly unwavering popularity continues despite several years of economic downturn within the country of 85 million people.
The Turkish lira lost about 80% of its value against dollar in five years, and the country’s inflation rate is around 50%, thanks largely to the president’s unorthodox economic policy of lowering rates of interest despite already high inflation.
And a series of devastating earthquakes in February killed greater than 50,000 people, a tragedy exacerbated by slow government response and reports of widespread corruption that allowed construction firms to bypass earthquake-related constructing safety regulations.
People carry body bags as local residents wait for his or her relatives to be pulled from the rubble of collapsed buildings in Hatay, February 14, 2023, after a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck the southeastern country.
Bulent Kilic | afp | Getty’s paintings
But Erdogan appears to be largely untouched politically; he still won essentially the most votes in Turkey’s earthquake-hit eastern provinces, that are overwhelmingly conservative in Islamic terms. Moreover, his powerful AK party won a majority within the Turkish parliament, meaning his opponent would have far less power as president.
“Erdogan wasted no time urging voters to support him to avoid a destabilizing rift between parliament and president,” Kinnear said. Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu appealed to the 8 million Generation Z and Kurdish voters who didn’t vote in the primary round to return and support him.
But his anti-refugee rhetoric has already modified it angered lots of his supporters and prompted his resignation from a few of his campaign allies.
The victory of the incumbent president seems increasingly more certain, analysts aren’t holding their breath for a return to economic normality. Turkey’s central bank is already aggressively imposing latest regulations to suppress purchases of local lira in foreign currency in an effort to stop the lira from falling further. The currency fell to its lowest level against the dollar in six months after the primary round of voting as Erdogan’s advantage became clear.
“Investors mustn’t expect a fundamental shift in Turkey’s unorthodox approach to economic policymaking any time soon. Erdogan’s belief that lower rates of interest result in lower inflation, which affects monetary policy, will proceed to terrify the markets,” Kinnear wrote.
Amid speculation in regards to the lira rate after the vote, Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the one query now’s “how weak is the lira and the way, without the potential for higher rates of interest, the CBRT (Turkish central bank) can prevent a spiral of devaluation and inflation again.