![Erdogan gives Turkey an election victory](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107247631-16853319461685331944-29656643775-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1685341903&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
On Sunday, Turkey voted for one more five-year rule for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a robust nationalist president entering his third decade in power.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the many leaders who congratulated Erdogan on Monday for his victory, calling him a “dear friend”, according to the Kremlin.
Turkey’s historic elections are of great importance to its population of 85 million when it comes to the long run of the country’s democracy, economy and foreign relations. Nevertheless it also has deep meaning for a lot of parts of the world beyond Turkey’s borders.
“Turkey is a crucial NATO ally for america and other NATO partners,” David Satterfield, the previous US ambassador to Turkey, told CNBC just before the ultimate presidential vote. Turkey has been a NATO member since 1952, boasts the Alliance’s second-largest army after the US, and has 50 US nuclear warheads and a significant air base utilized by NATO forces.
It is a producing powerhouse on the crossroads of Asia and Europe, as well as a vital exporter of agricultural products for a lot of countries around the globe. Türkiye also hosts over 4 million refugees.
More recently, Erdogan’s government is playing a number one diplomatic role between Russia and Ukraine, brokering an important Black Sea grain deal that’s unlocking Ukrainian exports of key products blocked by a full-scale Russian invasion.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets along with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, August 5, 2022.
Press Office of the President of Turkey | Reuters
Erdogan also stood in the way in which of a few of Turkey’s western allies’ most important goals, such as aggressively pushing Russia away from its war in Ukraine and admitting Sweden to the NATO alliance. Erdogan’s friendly relationship with Putin and his refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, as well as his government’s purchase of Russian weapons systems, have fearful many Western officials.
According to his spokesmen, Putin praised Erdogan’s efforts to “conduct an independent foreign policy” in a congratulatory message on Monday. “We highly appreciate your personal contribution to strengthening friendly Russian-Turkish relations and mutually helpful cooperation in various fields,” he said.
With Erdogan on the helm of such a strategically vital country for a recent presidential term, many are asking: what does this mean for NATO and Western geopolitical goals?
A Threat to NATO Cohesion?
The outlook is mixed amongst political and economic analysts inside and outdoors Turkey as to whether Erdogan is bad news for NATO’s future.
Mike Harris, founding father of consulting firm Cribstone Strategic Macro, believes the Turkish strongman’s prolonged reign is certainly negative for the 74-year-old alliance.
“Putin clearly wants NATO fragmentation, and Erdogan in power increases the likelihood of NATO fragmentation,” Harris said after the primary round of elections in mid-May. He pointed to Erdogan’s adamant refusal to break off relations with Putin and frequent criticism of Western governments.
But Turkey has to this point benefited greatly from its commitment to an independent foreign policy as far as Russia is anxious.
![Turkey is a key NATO partner but has a](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107247083-16850855801685085577-29617063328-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1685088974&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, Turkey’s trade with Russia doubled to $68.19 billion in 2022 from $34.73 billion in 2021. Turkey now receives 7 percent of the whole. of Russian exports, compared to 2 percent. in 2021, Russian tourists and expatriates, including billionaire oligarchs fleeing sanctions, flocked to the country as their travel opportunities were severely curtailed. Earlier in 2023, Putin waived the fee of exporting Russian gas to Turkey in a move widely seen as an attempt to boost Erdogan’s electoral probabilities.
This begs the query of what pressure NATO allies could try to use to change this, if any.
While maintaining good relations with Russia, Turkey has concurrently supported Ukraine with weapons and assistance – including powerful and deadly Turkish-made Bayraktar drones – and facilitated prisoner exchanges between warring countries, praised by Western officials.
Will Türkiye let Sweden join NATO?
Many analysts expect that Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden joining the alliance was largely a technique to gain pre-election influence, and that his stance will change after his victory. Turkey is at odds with Sweden over the way it claims the country supports Kurdish groups Ankara considers terrorists.
According to Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist and Turkey expert at BlueBay Asset Management, continuing to keep off NATO is against Turkey’s best interests.
“If Erdogan continues to delay signing (Sweden’s NATO membership), I expect a serious crisis in relations with the West,” he said on Monday.
“Due to the pressure on the lira, I expect Erdogan to compromise on the Swedish NATO offer,” Ash said, referring to Turkish currency that lost about 80% of its value against the dollar during the last five years, mainly due to Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policy.
“He extracted all of the political capital he could from these pre-election (repelling Sweden) pre-election, now that he has won, the one downside is delaying the inevitable,” he added. “So I expect Sweden to get NATO membership on the NATO Summit next month.”
![What next for Turkish politics?](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107247666-16853416451685341642-29658125547-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1685342081&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
Harris agrees. “He has already achieved his goal,” he said of Erdogan. “So will Sweden get into NATO? I’d bet my money on it, I guarantee it. Why would he continue to fight this battle? It was an election issue.”
Already on Monday, the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the foreign ministers of Sweden and Turkey would meet “soon” to discuss Stockholm’s potential accession to NATO.
CNBC contacted the office of the Turkish Presidency for comment.
Relations with Russia ‘vital’
Ultimately, Erdogan’s foreign policy decisions can be made with the intention of benefiting Turkey primarily, not its Western allies. Within the words of former US ambassador to Turkey, David Satterfield, Ankara’s relationship with Russia is “essential” – whether positive for NATO or not.
“Turkey has been a key partner for the NATO alliance and the broader international coalition opposing Putin’s war in Ukraine…I do not think ‘supporting Russia’ is a term I might use,” Satterfield told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday. “Turkey has an important relationship with Russia that has generated each good and bad for Turkey prior to now,” he said.
“We welcome, we welcome President Erdogan’s dialogue with President Putin, when the subject is stability, when the subject is the potential for access to grain and other products through the Black Sea from Ukraine, which was extremely useful and intensely vital,” the ambassador said.
“And we do not see it as a pivot or some kind of alliance with Russia. We see this as maintaining essential relations with Turkey’s very vital neighbor, for higher or for worse.”