A Ukrainian soldier fires a rocket launcher during a military exercise near the front line within the Donetsk region, June 8, 2023.
Anatoly Stepanov | AFP | Getty’s paintings
The collapse of a strategically necessary dam in Russian-occupied Ukraine raises questions on Kiev’s ability to launch a long-awaited counter-offensive, but analysts consider the following carnage is unlikely to stop the subsequent phase of the war.
The Nova Kakhovka Dam, which is situated on the Dnieper River, was blown up on Tuesday. Since then, the breach has wreaked havoc across southern Ukraine, with tens of 1000’s of individuals fleeing as entire cities were destroyed by the flood cascade.
Ukraine accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam, while the Kremlin denied the attack and said Kiev deliberately sabotaged the dam to divert attention from the counter-offensive. CNBC was unable to independently confirm the claims.
The break within the dam comes amid months of preparation for a Ukrainian counter-offensive, a phase of the war many see as potentially crucial in Kiev’s quest for victory.
NBC News reported On Thursday, Ukraine finally launched a counter-offensive, citing a senior officer and soldier near the front line. The report said that the wave of Ukrainian attacks on the war’s southeastern front line appeared to reflect a major latest attack.
Nevertheless, on Friday, the spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine denied reports of the beginning of a counter-offensive. according to Reuters. The government of Ukraine has repeatedly said that there’ll be no public announcement of the launch of the counter-offensive.
Andrius Tursa, an advisor for Central and Eastern Europe at Teneo, a political risk consultancy, said the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam could change Ukraine’s offensive plans, but “it is unlikely to derail them.”
In a memo published on Thursday, Tursa said Ukraine’s intensification and offensive actions could indicate the launch of a broader campaign, nevertheless it was likely to be “gradual and cautious”.
“It has long been expected that Ukraine’s offensive will give attention to the liberation of the country’s southeastern regions, which could cut off Russia’s ‘land bridge’ to Crimea, split the occupation forces and create a latest threat to Russian military assets on the peninsula,” Tursa said.
“While this probably stays one in every of the goals, Ukraine is also under increasing political pressure to show that Western military equipment and training has enabled it to deal serious blows to Russian forces and recapture significant swaths of occupied territory, wherever it is.”
Volunteers ride boats throughout the evacuation of a flooded area in Kherson, June 8, 2023, following damage to the Kakhovka hydropower plant dam.
Genia Savilov | AFP | Getty’s paintings
If Russia is behind the destruction of the dam and it has been approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the military leadership, Tursa said it “shows a insecurity of their ability to defend your entire front line by conventional means.”
Furthermore, the collapse of the dam is a signal to the international community that Moscow is ready to proceed using “asymmetric, escalating and highly destructive methods of defense, even when it also harms Russian interests,” Tursa added.
Consequences of breaking the Nova Kakhovka Dam
Ukraine has long warned that the Nova Kakhovka dam is a goal for Russia. In November, Kiev expressed fears that the dam could be destroyed by retreating Russian troops from the fitting bank of the Dnieper within the Kherson region.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, also said he didn’t expect the destruction of the dam to be of major importance to the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
“This is not the ‘land bridge’ here” [to Crimea] it’s the best to break, so it’s probably not successful,” Bremmer said on Twitter on Wednesday, stressing the importance of waiting for evidence of who was behind the dam collapse.
Russian forces and occupation authorities have since sought to exacerbate the humanitarian effects of the flooding brought on by Tuesday’s dam burst. evaluation from the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank.
According to the think tank, Russian forces are hiding amongst civilians trying to evacuate flooded settlements on the east bank of the Dnieper, and are also reportedly shelling a flooded evacuation site in the town of Kherson, killing one civilian and injuring several others.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko said the flooding unleashed by the dam’s explosion “definitely” would make a counter-offensive in the realm tougher.
“We’ve a couple of hundred more miles of front line there [are places] attack, but this is where it is going to be tougher. I’m not military, so I can not use the word not possible. I do not know, nevertheless it’s definitely much harder,” Goncharenko said on Wednesday in an interview with Channel 4 news.