Much stays unclear about the Ukrainian counter-offensive that has been occurring since last week:
Where do Ukrainians strike the strongest blow?
How effective are the Russian defensive lines?
Does Ukraine stand likelihood of breaking the land bridge between Crimea and Donbass, effectively rolling back last yr’s Russian invasion?
While the answers to these and related questions will remain obscured by the fog of war for a while, the wider political picture is crystal clear.
The Ukrainians is not going to lose this war.
Their country is not going to be occupied or dismembered by Russia.
There might be no Kremlin-sponsored regime change in Kiev that may turn it right into a Russian satrapy.
The fundamental query is whether Russia’s defeat might be confirmed only by force, when the Ukrainians drive all Russian soldiers out of the country and switch Ukraine right into a nation of porcupines, ready to endlessly deter and combat Russian aggression.
Alternatively, the war could end with Ukraine joining NATO, taking the umbrella of collective security and stopping further Russian aggression.
In fact, nobody is trying to bring Ukraine into an alliance in the middle of a war with a nuclear power.
But it surely is perfectly reasonable to expect that the “zeal” of the war will wax and wane, and even that a ceasefire might be agreed upon.
Or it would supply an opportunity to bring Ukraine into NATO and deter future Russian attacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has many things, but he is not suicidal.
There are good the explanation why it has never decided to test NATO’s Article 5 guarantees, even since Finland’s accession brought the alliance to Russia. In brief, collective defense works.
Conversely, the fundamental reason why Ukraine is at war is because the West has never given it credible security guarantees.
The 1994 Budapest Memorandum didn’t commit the country’s Western supporters to anything.
At the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest, the Alliance missed an opportunity to put Ukraine and Georgia on the path to membership, despite prescient calls from the George W. Bush administration to achieve this.
The upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, is an opportunity to rectify this error.
The clearer the commitment of the United States and our allies to Ukraine’s membership, the sooner Ukrainians will want to end the war – and the less likely it is that hostilities will ever resume, regardless of the Kremlin’s uproar.
Let’s make it clear. Ukraine’s credible path to NATO membership is not an act of charity.
And while this might lead to a proper commitment to send US troops to fight and die for Ukraine if need be, it might also make the prospect of such a conflict distant, just as war has grow to be unthinkable in other parts of Europe thanks to NATO.
Ukraine is likely to emerge from the war with the strongest and hardened army on the European continent, spending much more on defense than the alliance’s 2% of gross domestic product over the coming many years.
Not only wouldn’t it be an asset to the alliance if adopted; Ukraine could grow to be a dangerous burden if the West decided to let it fend for itself, without help outside the political forums that guarantee Europe’s stability.
This must be of particular importance to America because it prepares to confront China.
The longer the war lasts and the more dangerous Eastern Europe becomes, the harder it is for the United States to concentrate on the Indo-Pacific.
History shows that the American people is not going to advocate withdrawal from Europe – the cultural, social and private ties across the Atlantic are too strong for that.
Furthermore, Europe stays America’s closest, richest and strongest partner in holding China accountable.
The concept that ignoring the existential problems of Europeans will make them more willing to listen to Washington’s account of the Chinese threat is naive at best.
The Ukrainians are fighting our common enemy — and can proceed to achieve this with or without us.
After many years of losing influence in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, and weakening transatlantic ties due to the lack of US leadership, we must realize that Ukraine’s struggle is an opportunity to revitalize US alliances and expand the reach of US power – including, amongst other things, introducing brave Ukrainians to NATO.
We must not be afraid to take this step.
Dalibor Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Twitter: @DaliborRohac