This summer, epidemiologists are keeping an in depth eye on the surge in flu activity in the southern hemisphere, which is now winter, to see if it’s an indication of what’s to return in the US.
The Australian Department of Health and Aged Care reported a rise in flu-like illness activity in just about all jurisdictions in the last two weeks of May.
Disease activity was highest in children 5 to 9 years of age, followed by children 4 years and younger, then 10 to 14 years of age.
“There are just a few countries where activity is higher or earlier in comparison with the years leading as much as the COVID-19 pandemic, while others are experiencing activity typical of this time of 12 months or activity lower than historical trends,” Dr. Carrie Reed, head of the Division of Influenza Epidemiology and Prevention CDC, told Fox News Digital.
She added that a review of each the World Health Organization’s surveillance data and Australia’s most up-to-date surveillance report shows that Australia’s rising influenza activity is inside historic ranges.
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“Nevertheless,” she said, “the CDC continues to watch influenza trends around the world.”
Flu season in the southern hemisphere often occurs between April and September, while flu season occurs between October and May in the northern hemisphere, Reed said.
“What’s happening in the Southern Hemisphere is usually a very important predictor of upcoming flu season events,” Dr. Aaron Glatt, chief of infectious diseases at Mount Sinai South Nassau Hospital in Long Island, Recent York, told Fox News Digital.
He said the activity often heralds what’s to return in the United States next winter – while also noting that “there are not any hard and fast rules.”
He added: “We just need to wait and see if it’s accurate or not every 12 months.”
Reed also stressed that influenza activity in the Southern Hemisphere doesn’t necessarily predict what will happen in the US.
“It’s because different influenza viruses could also be dominant in different parts of the world, and population immunity could also be different between populations in the northern and southern hemispheres,” Reed said.
Current influenza activity in the US
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Most areas across the country are seeing “minimal” or “low” flu-like activity, which is typical for this time of 12 months, in keeping with the CDC’s US Flu Surveillance Weekly Report.
Between 2010 and 2020, influenza caused between 9 and 41 million cases a 12 months, between 140,000 and 710,000 hospitalizations, and between 12,000 and 52,000 deaths a 12 months – nonetheless, in keeping with the CDC, the exact number is unknown.
Many individuals recuperate from influenza without in search of care, while some may seek care later in the illness when influenza can not be detected in a breath sample.
“Sensitive flu tests can only detect flu if done inside every week of the onset of illness,” the agency noted on its website.
“As well as, some commonly used tests to diagnose influenza in the clinical setting will not be very sensitive and may give false-negative results (i.e. miss true flu infections).”
States are only required to report flu deaths for children under 18, so many adult cases go unreported.
Because surveillance data can “drastically underestimate the true US flu burden,” the agency uses statistical models to estimate the annual variety of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths related to seasonal flu on its website.
Why is flu so hard to predict?
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Usually, people start getting the flu around October, and clinics start getting busy between December and February, in keeping with a recent report.
Experts point to predictable human activities that spread the flu every 12 months – children returning to highschool and people traveling to see family members during the holidays.
But it surely is the unknown variables, comparable to the weather and the number of individuals in the population who’re proof against flu during the winter, that make it difficult to predict the coming flu season.
Human behavior and social interaction also play a task, so masking by large numbers of individuals may help reduce the spread of the flu.
“There is no method to know what flu activity will appear like in the United States this season,” Reed said.
September and October are generally good times to get a flu shot, she said.
Those accustomed to an annual flu shot will even have the option of being vaccinated for the updated COVID-19 vaccine in addition to potentially a recent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, two of that are currently FDA-approved for adults in the recent past, in keeping with the latest reports at the age of 60.
“Every flu season is different, and the best method to protect yourself is to get an annual flu shot.”
The CDC Advisory Committee on Vaccination Practices will meet June 21-23 to make recommendations for specific patient populations that needs to be vaccinated against RSV.