KIEV — In Donbass, just a number of kilometers from the center of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, you may really laugh.
“There may be a joke that before the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, the Russian army was considered by some to be the second best army in the world,” Oleg Shiryaev, the commander of the 225th separate assault battalion, told me through an interpreter. “After the invasion, it became clear that that is the second largest army in Ukraine. After Prigozhin’s coup, it’s the second largest army in Russia.”
Everyone in the room giggles.
But after all, Ukraine’s struggle for survival is not any joke. AND
and the world is watching as this country uses Western aid to try to force a better-supplied and more quite a few crew out of its territory.
“We approached this counter-offensive with very high expectations not only from our Western partners, but even from the Ukrainian people, because all of us still remember how successful our counter-offensive in Kharkiv was,” Defense Minister Yuri Sak said on Sunday. sound of alarm sirens.
But “the military and political command had no illusions”, knowing that “it should not be like in Kharkov and Kherson”, he noted. “The Russians have built unprecedented fortified defensive lines along the front lines in every single place in the east, in the south. So we knew that there have been thousands and thousands of mines, that there have been a whole bunch of kilometers of trenches.”
In other words, the counter-attack stays at an early stage.
“It’s now been a month and a half of offensive operations, but it surely’s still mostly research and shaping operations. Because of this we now have not engaged our important forces yet – we’re still looking for weak points in the enemy’s lines of defense.”
Mercenary land
Shiryaev, who lives near Bahkmut, a city the Russians captured and nearly destroyed in May, is aware of the mercenaries of Prigozhin’s Wagner Group – and more. “It is a sector where they’ve private military firms,” he explained. But since the attempted “coup d’état” “I have never noticed any changes.”
“Ukrainian forces are moving forward step-by-step – not drastically, but there’s movement,” he said. “We’re using the resources we now have readily available right away, and we’re doing it pretty much.”
Or, as Konstantyn Sergeyevich Żydkov, Lt. Col. Commander of the 228th battalion, put it more forcefully through the translator: “The enemy is standing in front of us, we’re shooting at him, they’re shooting at us.”
Zhidkov, who fights at Bakhmut, explained: “Principally, these are artillery duels. Now there are few gun battles – artillery is more involved.”
In other words, for heavy weapons such as tanks, Ukraine practically had to beg.
He disputes a Recent York Times report that in the first two weeks of the counter-offensive, 20% of the equipment sent to the front lines was damaged or destroyed.
The operation, Zhidkov said, “is progressing slowly because we’re fearful about the lives of our fighters and we’re doing every little thing very rigorously and appropriately. Winning could be very vital, but it surely is equally vital to save the lives of the warriors in order that they will proceed their work and are available back alive.”
“We never use our troops as cannon fodder in pursuit of some quick success,” confirmed Sak.
“Military planning takes into consideration all aspects, from weather conditions to weaknesses and vulnerabilities in enemy defense lines. Nevertheless, the priority is all the time to achieve maximum results with minimum losses for the Ukrainian army.
Pressing on the F-16
What really “determines the pace of offensive operations,” he said, “is total Russian air superiority along the front line. That is why we have been asking for the F-16 for almost a 12 months now. But the undeniable fact that we now have nothing to counter Russian air supremacy means we want to be extra careful, and since we value our soldiers’ lives, it takes for much longer.”
In reality, hardly any country in the world would even consider “offensive operations” without “air supremacy.”
“Just look back at how the Desert Storm campaign of shock and awe was carried out in the first few hours,” he said. “All Iraqi air defense systems were destroyed before ground forces actually moved in.”
“Considering we do not have fighters and the Russians have air superiority,” he added, “this offensive goes very well because we’re liberating our land.”
U.S.-supplied cluster munitions have been “deployed to the front lines, but we’ve not used them yet” — and while aware of the “moral concerns” about their use, Ukraine will use them “only to defeat the enemy” and “break through the lines of defence.”
I expect them to be of great help.
What’s value knowing about this stage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
1. Kherson
The Kherson region, situated southwest of Zaporozhye, was presented as a possible candidate for a counter-offensive from which the Kiev army could launch an attack that might cross Russian-occupied territory and cut off Crimea. But the destruction of the Nova Khakovka Dam this week could possibly be a serious setback. Kiev accused Moscow of deliberately detonating the dam and causing a catastrophic flood so as to thwart a counteroffensive.
2. Zaporizhia
Russian forces claimed to have repelled 4 separate Ukrainian attacks on Zaporizhia, where Kiev’s troops attempted to break through the enemy’s front line – an attempt that Moscow said resulted in heavy casualties, including 30 tanks destroyed and up to 350 casualties. The Ukrainian military said in an update that the enemy stays “on the defensive”, carrying out airstrikes and shelling towns and villages with artillery shells.
3. Tokmak
Intense fighting was reported in the city of Tokmak, a key Russian logistical hub in southeastern Ukraine, on the route to the larger occupied city of Melitopol on the Sea of Azov, which is seen as a crucial goal for Kiev. Unconfirmed reports claimed that German Leopold 2 tanks and US-supplied Bradley tanks took part in the battle on the Ukrainian side.
4. Avdiivka
The devastated city of Avdiivka, situated on the outskirts of Russian-controlled Donetsk in the east, withstood 15 months of bombing and countless attempts by Russian troops to encircle it. The Ukrainian army said in its latest communiqué that a recent attempt by Moscow forces to approach two settlements near Avdievka was thwarted after they bombarded the area with artillery fire.
5. Bakhmut
Kiev said its troops had advanced a couple of mile to the flanks of the ravaged city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which was taken by Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in May after months of fighting and handed over to regular units. Moscow claimed to have repelled the attack, and senior US officials said Ukrainian troops in the east suffered “significant” losses in troops and equipment.
6. Belgorod
Pro-Ukrainian rebels are carrying out airstrikes on the Russian city of Belgorod on the Ukrainian border as Kiev forces continued shelling the city and wreaking havoc. 1000’s of residents were evacuated from the region, sparking a furor in the Kremlin. Partisans participating in the Belgorod campaign announced that after the liberation of Crimea they might go to Moscow.
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Nevertheless, Sak warned that “we must not underestimate our enemy either. We all the time say that the Russians are demoralized, disorganized, ill-equipped, ill-trained” – but additionally they “learn”.
He admitted that Ukraine “now not” has “total dominance in drone warfare” from the starting of the invasion.
Lesson for the West: “The enemy arms time. The more time we give them, the wiser they are going to turn into and the harder it should be for the Ukrainian army to liberate our land. That is why procrastination could be very, very dangerous.”
He immediately identified that F-16 pilot training is “unnecessarily slowed down by bureaucracy in various countries, including the US.” By the time the F-16 arrives, the Russians can be prepared.
Kelly Jane Torrance is the editor-in-chief of The Post.