Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are placed on a PC motherboard in this illustration taken June 16, 2023.
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
St. Moritz, SWITZERLAND — Top players in the crypto industry gathered at a lavish hotel in elegant Swiss ski town St. Moritz ahead of the Wednesday start of the Crypto Finance Conference.
Many were at dinners and drinks when a post from the account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange (SEC) on the X social media platform, formerly generally known as Twitter, on Tuesday claimed that the long-awaited bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) had been approved.
It turned out it hadn’t. As a substitute, the SEC said its account had been compromised.
The false news was enough to send bitcoin spiking briefly before falling. It also ruined the celebrations of the crypto industry players in St. Moritz, a lot of who’ve been waiting for years for a bitcoin ETF to get past skeptics on the SEC.
“We walked into the lobby bar, right because the tweet got here out, and everybody was ecstatic … after which five minutes later after all of the drinks were ordered … very sad,” Meltem Demirors, head of strategy at CoinShares, told CNBC on Wednesday.
“But, look, I feel when you’re a screenwriter, you could not write the narrative of this industry, it’s wild, its preposterous, its crazy.”
The false post has not dampened the mood amongst crypto bulls, who say that recent bitcoin highs are possible this yr.
“I feel we’re going over six figures by the top of the yr,” Demirors said, highlighting two key reasons — a bitcoin ETF approval and the so-called upcoming “halving” event.
Each of those aspects underpinned the greater than 150% rally in bitcoin of last yr — an increase that has continued into 2024.
ETFs excitement
Many are enthusiastic about a bitcoin ETF, which tracks the value of the cryptocurrency and allows market participants to take a position in bitcoin without actually owning the crypto.
The thought is that an ETF could bring in larger and more traditional investors, who didn’t need to go near cryptocurrency.
“It is a watershed moment, no doubt about it. It’ll usher in a number of institutional capital, it’ll change the dynamic of this asset class completely,” Sheila Warren, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation, told CNBC on Wednesday.
Crypto execs aren’t expecting that the SEC social media debacle will fully derail the ETF approval.
Fred Thiel, CEO of bitcoin miner Marathon Digital Holdings, told CNBC that the SEC may “delay” approval, but will likely give the green light soon.
“I actually have a sense that they are likely going to approve a complete slew of them after which move on,” Thiel said.
Demirors of CoinShares said that the ETFs could potentially see capital inflows of $25 billion to $100 billion in their first yr of trade, coming from various areas, including the trillions of dollars in U.S. retirement funds.
Where does the bitcoin price go in 2024?
The previous all-time high of bitcoin was logged just below $69,000 in November 2021.
The bitcoin price collapsed in 2022, as projects failed, bankruptcies flooded the industry and major players comparable to the crypto exchange and FTX faced criminal probes in the U.S.
Bitcoin then rose by greater than 150% in 2023, with much of that increase owed to excitement across the ETF.
But bitcoin also has historically traded in cycles, which include key events called halvings — when the rewards that miners earn from mining bitcoin are slashed in half. This reduces the quantity of bitcoin supply in the market and has often preceded a bull run to all-time highs. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in circulation.
The subsequent halving is resulting from happen in April 2024.
The anticipation over ETF and the halving has caused the crypto industry to get very bullish on bitcoin this yr.
“I feel bitcoin will either follow its historical cycle, which might have it increase in price, achieve the prior all-time high a while toward the top of this yr, then recent all-time highs towards the top of next yr. That is if it follows historical patterns,” Thiel said.
Thiel added that potential monetary policy easing from central banks globally could also help support the value of bitcoin.
“We estimate internally that we’ll definitely hit the all-time high levels by the top of this yr, the prior all-time highs, and we’ll see into next yr what happens beyond that,” Thiel said.
CNBC previously spoke to people, each inside and outdoors of the cryptocurrency industry, about their price outlook, with calls starting from $60,000 to $500,000 for bitcoin by the top of 2024.