First there have been Blake and Gwen, then Meghan and Harry. Now everyone seems to be asking: how is Vlad and Jinping doing? Answer: Hard times are coming for Sino-Russian bromance.
Beijing and Moscow share a dream of an isolated and diminished America that enables them to run wild all around the world. But shared dreams alone are not a solid foundation for a long-term relationship.
Let’s start with the proven fact that China’s approach to geopolitics is best summed up in Rick’s classic “Casablanca” quote: “I’m not sticking my neck out for anyone.”
Sure, Beijing has given the green light to Russia’s war on aggression and provided political cover for Russian President Vladimir Putin on the United Nations. In any case, it cost China nothing and embarrassed the West. And buying heavily discounted oil from Moscow is greater than glad.
China would probably do far more for Russia as well, unless they may very well be held accountable for it. But to take a real risk for Russia? I feel not.
Washington recently warned that Beijing was considering sending arms and military aid to Moscow. The Chinese foreign minister denied this on Wednesday. Who knows what the fundamental truth is? Still, it would not be like China to take risks that did not directly offer big rewards. Arms to Russia offers nothing like that. As an alternative of killing untrained Russians carrying Russian equipment, they’d be killed with Chinese equipment. That might not be good for China.
From China’s perspective, the war in Ukraine is useful to each side. If Russia crushes Ukraine: Europe is split, destabilized and scattered; the role of the US in Europe is diminished; and NATO found itself on shaky ground. This puts China in a stronger position in the world.
If Moscow fails, this opens up many opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence in Central Asia, Mongolia, and even perhaps parts of the Russian Federation. With luck, it can replace the Russian influence in some places.
Beijing has just one goal out of its war with Ukraine: to make the world a higher place for China.
One of the best ways for America and its allies to mitigate the threats of a Russo-Chinese détente is to make Russia a less desirable ally for China. Daily Ukraine reduces Russia’s conventional military capabilities. It helps. And day-after-day Europe is weaning itself from its dangerous dependence on Russian oil and gas. That helps too.
With only a gutted Putin by his side, even Taiwan-craving Xi Jinping should think twice before doing something rash, Putin-à la. But to be sure that the Chinese dictator refrains from throwing the load, the US may have to assemble forces.
We want a domestic policy that may prepare the bottom for a thriving economy, one which shouldn’t be depending on doing business with China. We want a Navy to discourage Beijing. We also must make sure that China doesn’t surpass our nuclear arsenal or defeat our missile defense.
China is willing to be friends with a warmongering Russia, so long as Beijing is the dominant partner and the friendship brings significant advantages. The US and the remainder of the West should work to make this partnership worse than the mixture of Bridezilla and probably the most disgusting bachelor in history.
Heritage Foundation Vice President James Jay Carafano leads the think tank’s research on national security and diplomacy.