Protesters participate in an illustration against the federal government’s plan to lift the statutory retirement age in Paris, March 16, 2023.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty’s paintings
A coalition of French MPs filed a motion of no confidence in President Emmanuel Macron on Friday after chaotic scenes within the lower house of the country’s parliament the day before.
Despite frantic last-minute negotiations and figure-pushing, Macron has calculated that he doesn’t have enough votes within the National Assembly to pass his controversial and multi-year plan to lift the retirement age.
So he resorted to a contingency plan that was opposed by many—including members of his party; using special constitutional power to push it through with out a parliamentary majority.
The measure, which suggests the national retirement age will rise from 62 to 64 for many staff, was announced by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, which was met with cheers, jeers and booing from lawmakers.
The response was sharp. The CFDT union called it a “true anti-democracy” and called on local unions to assemble over the weekend and for an enormous day of strikes and industrial motion on March 23.
Reuters reported that around 7,000 people gathered on Thursday night to protest at Place de la Concorde in Paris, where police used tear gas and attacked protesters.
A coalition of left-wing MPs has tabled one motion of no confidence, which is supported by left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. One other motion was made by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, now led by Jordan Bardella, which said it will vote for any motion of no confidence.
Members of the left wing parliament hold banners and sing La Marseillaise, the French national anthem, as French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne arrives to deliver a speech on pension reform on the National Assembly in Paris, France, March 16, 2023.
Pascal Rossignol | Reuters
Macron, Borne and their Renaissance party, formerly En Marche, are expected to get through the vote.
Julien Hoez, a political consultant who has worked with the Renaissance party, says the motion of no confidence will struggle to get the required majority of 287 votes. That is the case with Mélenchon’s left-wing La France Insoumise, Le Pen’s National Rally, the green party Europe Ecology, and others against Macron’s bills – potentially including members of the centre-right establishment party Les Républicains. Hoez saw it going to be tight and it’s possible Borne might cave in.
The strength of sentiment against the introduction of a special constitutional measure shouldn’t be underestimated, he told CNBC by telephone.
“With a budget, it was comprehensible and acceptable, because you would like a budget to maintain the country moving, it made it easier to swallow a pill,” said Hoez.
“Something as vital as this needed to be done in another way to make it work. People think it’s undemocratic.”
A protester sits atop a lamp post with an indication reading “Macron within the service of Black Rock, Black Block within the service of the people” as demonstrators light bonfires on Place de la Concorde in protest against the French government pushing its retirement bill through the French parliament with out a vote after the adoption of Article 49.3 of the Structure, March 16, 2023 in Paris, France.
Kiran Ridley | Getty Images | News Getty’s paintings
While Macron was re-elected in 2022, next 12 months’s European elections don’t look good, he said, and throughout the country Renaissance will increasingly be cornered between left and right, with controversy hampering its ability to pass other measures.
Some objections to raising the retirement age concentrate on its negative effects womenpublic sector staff and people on lower wages who start work earlier.
For a lot of leftists, the federal government’s argument that changes are needed to make sure the longevity of the pension system and reduce its €10 billion ($10.73 billion) annual deficit is a priority issue, especially given its policies corresponding to tax credits for thing very wealthy and corporations.
Marine Le Pen of the National Rally, whom Macron beat to the highest job in 2022, also opposed the reforms, which she called an unfair burden on people – and some analysts say the measure may increase its popularity.
What if?
If the vote of no confidence passes, the federal government will be forced to resign for the primary time since 1962.
Macron could then either form a latest government with a latest prime minister or dissolve parliament, triggering latest elections.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at German investment bank Berenberg, said French governments often get no-confidence votes and he expects that to occur this time, resulting in the automated passing of the pension reform.
Nevertheless, if this doesn’t occur, “latest parliamentary elections could go against the alliance of parties supporting Macron,” Schmieding said in a memo.
“If that’s the case, it could turn him right into a lame duck in domestic politics for the rest of his term until 2027.”
Macron has already weakened his position, Schmieding added, and the brand new parliament would likely be deeply divided with out a majority.
Nevertheless, he noted that Berenberg analysts “remain optimistic that France can largely remain what it appears to be for the time being: essentially the most dynamic of Europe’s major economies.”
Correction: This story has been updated with the right name of the leader of the National Unification party.