Hurricane experts at Colorado State University expect tropical cyclone activity to be slightly below average in the Atlantic basin during the 2023 hurricane season.
Phil Klotzbach, the forecast’s lead creator, released the information at the National Tropical Weather Conference in Texas on Thursday morning.
The CSU Tropical Weather Forecast predicts 13 named storms, six of which could grow to be hurricanes with winds of not less than 74 mph.
Klotzbach said two of the hurricanes might be severe (Category 3 or higher) with winds of not less than 111 mph.
Why Forecasters Don’t Expect a Busy Hurricane Season
After a rare La Niña triple drop, the state of the Pacific is taken into account neutral, which may make a big difference to the busyness of the Atlantic season.
“It’s April. There’s a lot of uncertainty, but I believe there’s much more this 12 months, and that is because we have been in a La Niña formation for about three years and it finally collapsed,” Klotzbach told FOX Weather.
Klotzbach noted that while the transition from neutral to El Niño is the principal reason for the slightly less busy forecasts for the hurricane season, other conditions may deviate from a true El Niño-type configuration.
“It definitely looks like we’ve the potential for a potentially pretty solid El Niño event this summer and fall,” he said. “Nevertheless, at the same time, the Atlantic in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is admittedly very warm.”
Warmer-than-average water temperatures are one among the principal ingredients that may lead to higher organization and formation of tropical cyclones.
“So it’s type of a tug of war between these two aspects, which is why our final forecast is slightly below normal, simply out of respect for a potentially quite strong El Niño event,” Klotzbach said.
A hurricane expert said even when an El Niño were to prevail, there was still potential for an lively season.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross agrees with Klotzbach and warns that those in hurricane zones should at all times be prepared no matter the forecast.
“The seasonal forecasts published in April are uncertain because the future state of El Niño is at all times uncertain. It’s slowly getting brighter closer to summer. And this 12 months, the forecast is much more uncertain than usual as a strong, limiting El Niño hurricane is just one among many possibilities that span a fairly busy season,” Norcross said. “The underside line is that the predictions are interesting, but they don’t have anything to do with how people in the hurricane zone should prepare for the season.”
How does “slightly below average season” compare to previous hurricane seasons?
CSU experts looked back at previous hurricane seasons and located similarities on which to base their predictions.
“Thus far, the 2023 hurricane season shows similar characteristics to 1969, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2015,” CSU forecasters said.
“These years span a range of ENSO conditions, from a warm neutral ENSO to a strong El Niño, and from near normal (sea surface temperatures) in the tropical Atlantic to well above average (sea surface temperatures) in the tropical Atlantic,” Klotzbach said.
Klotzbach warned that initial forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty.
CSU experts expect hurricane activity in 2023 to be around 80% of the average season. For comparison, tropical cyclone activity in 2022 was about 75% of the average season.
“The 2022 hurricane season might be most remembered for 2 major hurricanes: Fiona and Ian,” CSU forecasters said. “Fiona brought devastating flooding to Puerto Rico before causing significant waves, winds and rain in Canada’s Atlantic provinces as a post-tropical cyclone. Ian made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in southwest Florida, causing greater than 150 deaths and $113 billion in damage.
Klotzbach and his team plan to release Outlook updates periodically throughout the hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.