Climate scientists say the world could break a recent average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, driven by climate change and the anticipated return of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
Climate models suggest that after three years of the La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which generally cools global temperatures somewhat, the world will experience a return to El Niño, a hotter counterpart, later this yr.
During an El Niño, westward winds along the equator decelerate and warm water is pushed eastward, causing warmer ocean surface temperatures.
“El Nino is often related to record temperatures at the worldwide level. It will not be yet known whether this can occur in 2023 or 2024, but I believe it’s more likely,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Climate models suggest a return to El Niño conditions by the late Boreal summer and the potential for a powerful El Nino later in the yr, Buontempo said.
The world’s hottest yr up to now was 2016, which coincided with a powerful El Niño – although climate change is driving extreme temperatures even in years without it.
The past eight years have been the eight hottest on record in the world – reflecting a long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer on the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said El Niño-driven temperatures could worsen the impacts of climate change that countries are already experiencing – including severe heat waves, droughts and wildfires.
“If an El Niño develops, there’s a great likelihood that 2023 will likely be even hotter than 2016 – provided that the world continues to warm as people proceed to burn fossil fuels,” Otto said.
EU Copernicus scientists released a report on Thursday assessing the acute climatic conditions the world experienced last yr, the fifth warmest yr on record.
Europe experienced its hottest summer on record in 2022, while extreme rains triggered by climate change caused catastrophic flooding in Pakistan, and sea ice in Antarctica hit a record low in February.
The average global temperature in the world is now 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times, Copernicus said.
Despite many of the world’s major emitters having pledged to ultimately reduce net emissions to zero, global CO2 emissions continued to extend last yr.