A queue of ambulances outside the Royal London Hospital A&E department, November 24, 2022, London. In the UK, the variety of ‘inactive’ people – people who find themselves neither working nor in search of work – aged 16 to 64 has increased by greater than 630,000 since 2019.
Leon Neal/Getty Images
LONDON — With skyrocketing inflation and energy costs, Brexit-related trade turmoil and the ongoing recession, the UK economy is hit by a record variety of staff reporting long-term illnesses.
The Office for National Statistics reported that between June and August 2022, around 2.5 million people cited chronic illness as the most important reason for inactivity, a rise of around half 1,000,000 since 2019.
The variety of “inactive” people – neither working nor in search of work – aged 16 to 64 has increased by greater than 630,000 since 2019. return to the labor market, although inflation and energy costs put enormous pressure on household funds.
The UK avoided massive job losses during the Covid-19 pandemic as the government’s furlough scheme subsidized businesses to retain staff. But since lockdown measures were lifted, the country has witnessed a labor market exodus of remarkable proportions amongst advanced economies.
in his last month’s reportThe ONS said numerous aspects could possibly be behind the recent increase, including National Health Service waiting lists which can be at a record high, an aging population and the effects of long-term Covid.
“Younger people have also seen a few of the biggest relative increases, with some industries, similar to wholesale and retail, being hit harder than others,” the ONS said.
While the effects of the problems mentioned above haven’t been quantified, the report suggests that the increase was resulting from “other health problems or disabilities”, “mental illnesses and nervous disorders” and “problems related to [the] back or neck.”
Legacy of austerity
Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, told CNBC that the scale of the labor market depletion is probably going a mixture of long Covid; other health issues related to the pandemic, similar to mental illness; and the current crisis in the NHS.
As well as, he noted that aspects that directly harm public health – similar to prolonged waiting times for treatment – can have knock-on effects: people could also be forced to go away the workforce to take care of sick relatives.
“It’s price remembering that the UK has been here before, probably at the least twice. In the early Nineteen Nineties, the UK experienced a pointy recovery, with unemployment falling, after “Black Wednesday”, but in addition a big and sustained increase in the number of individuals claiming disability advantages, Portes said, adding that unemployment is usually detrimental to each health and employment opportunities.
“The federal government is seemingly doing little about it. Except for tackling the NHS crisis, one other key policy area is to assist people who find themselves sick and disabled get back to work and little is being done about this – as a substitute the government is harassing people on Universal Credit with fines and sanctions which we all know do little to assist “.
In his recent autumn statement, Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced that the government would ask greater than 600,000 people on Universal Credit – means-tested social welfare payments for low-income households or unemployed people – to satisfy with a “job coach” to find out plans to extend the variety of hours and earnings.
Hunt also announced a review of issues stopping re-entering the workforce and pledged £280m ($340.3m) to “combat advantages fraud and error” over the next two years.
Although the pandemic has made the health crisis much worse, leaving a hole in the UK economy, the surge in long-term illness claims actually began in 2019, and economists see several possible the reason why the country is incredibly vulnerable.
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Portes suggested that the government’s austerity policies – a decade of drastic cuts in public spending introduced after former Prime Minister David Cameron took office in 2010 – could have a negative impact on the economy.
“The UK was particularly vulnerable resulting from austerity – NHS waiting lists were skyrocketing and productivity/satisfaction was plummeting, well before the pandemic,” Portes said.
“And support for people receiving disability and disability advantages was exhausted in early 2010. More broadly, savings led to a steeper gradient in health outcomes by income/class.”
Inequality and growing waiting lists
National figures support this: Between 2018 and 2020, men living in the most deprived areas of England continue to exist average 9.7 years lower than those in the least deprived areas, with a difference of seven.9 years for girls.
The ONS noted that each genders saw a “statistically significant increase in inequality in life expectancy at birth from 2015 to 2017”.
In the aftermath of the pandemic, NHS waiting lists have grown at the fastest pace since registration began in August 2007, as highlighted in a recent House of Commons report, with greater than 7 million patients on a waiting list for consultant-led hospital treatment in England since September.
Nevertheless, the report noted that this will not be a latest phenomenon, with the waiting list growing rapidly since 2012.
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“Before the pandemic, in December 2019, the waiting list was over 4.5 million – almost two million greater than in December 2012, a rise of 74%,” it said.
“In other words, while the pandemic accelerated the growth of waiting lists, this was also the case for several years before the pandemic.”
Former Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders, now a senior policy adviser at Oxford Economics, also told CNBC that Covid has hit the UK particularly hard by way of severity and that a part of this will have been the results of higher rates in the country. pre-existing medical conditions – similar to obesity – which will have been exacerbated by Covid.
“The UK is a comparatively unequal country in order that could possibly be one in all the the reason why even when we have now the same Covid wave as other countries we will have an even bigger impact on public health because in case you want you’ve an even bigger tail of people that would most prefer it touched,” he added.
Saunders suggested that any government growth strategy should include measures to deal with these healthcare challenges which can be now intrinsic to labor force participation rates and the wider economy.
“It is not only a health issue, it’s an economic issue. It can be crucial in two ways. I feel it is important enough as a health issue, but it surely deserves extra prominence due to its impact on potential production, which then translates into other economic issues.”