Congratulating Finland, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Finland now has “a reliable security guarantee – a collective guarantee”.
Tomasz Trutschel | photo library | Getty’s paintings
Ukraine warmly congratulated Finland on its accession to NATO, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Helsinki now has “a reliable guarantee of security – a collective guarantee.”
But when the Finnish flag was hoisted at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday, officially marking its entry because the thirty first member of the Western military alliance, feelings will need to have been bittersweet in Kiev.
Ukraine longs for NATO membership, having long aspired to hitch the alliance and the sense of security its members enjoy as a results of the collective defense pact.
At the center of NATO is the belief that an attack on one member is an attack on all members. If this principle, enshrined in Article 5, is invoked, all members are sure to rise up for that member country.
![How NATO defends Eastern Europe](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107036418-GettyImages-1238346336.jpg?v=1648178362&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
Ukraine knows that its own path to this “guarantee of security”, as described by Zelensky, faces many more barriers to entry.
These include not only the undeniable fact that Ukraine is actively engaged in an ongoing war with Russia that shows no signs of ending soon, but in addition the likely reluctance of some NATO members with warmer relations with Moscow (reminiscent of Turkey and Hungary) to further antagonize Russia when relations between NATO and Russia are already at a historically low level and more like a Cold War.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto (left) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg leave after a press conference through the meeting of NATO foreign ministers at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, April 4, 2023.
Kenzo Tribouillard | AFP | Getty’s paintings
Russia has been raging for months over the upcoming NATO enlargement, saying it increases the danger of conflict with Moscow.
The Kremlin warned on Tuesday that it will take “countermeasures to make sure its tactical and strategic security.” Russian President Vladimir Putin is resulting from hold talks together with his Belarusian ally, President Alexander Lukashenko, on Wednesday, with deepening defense cooperation and strategy on the agenda.
A bittersweet moment
Congratulating Finland on its entry into NATO, Zelensky said in his late-night speech that Russia’s aggression against his country shows that only collective preventive security guarantees are “credible.”
“Russian aggression clearly proves that only collective guarantees, only preventive guarantees may be credible. That is what we have all the time talked about. There was also speak about speed – what counts is the speed of choices on security. Now we will see how briskly the procedures may be, Zelensky said.
Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership last May, prompted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and their bids for membership were accelerated. Sweden is still waiting for Turkey and Hungary to ratify its offer.
Ukraine applied for NATO membership last September and has also asked for its bid to be accelerated, but analysts say it could take years and definitely won’t occur so long as Russia occupies swaths of its territory.
![Watch the full CNBC interview with Philip Breedlove, former commander of US European Command](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107128974-16648937391664893734-25819144209-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1664894244&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that the door remained open to future NATO members, although he didn’t mention Ukraine by name.
“President Putin desired to slam NATO’s door. Today we show the world that he failed.
As an alternative of less NATO, it has achieved the other. More NATO. And our doors remain firmly open.”
Stoltenberg noted that “Finland now has the strongest friends and allies on the planet”, adding that “in times like this, friends and allies are more necessary than ever.” NATO has proven to be Ukraine’s friend and ally over the past 12 months, but for now, Kiev stays outside the alliance, looking inside.
Unaligned stars for Ukraine
History might have been very different if Ukraine had previously been a member of NATO, and it is highly unlikely that Russia would have invaded its neighbor if it had been under NATO protection.
Doing so would oblige NATO members to guard one another, and Moscow would face the collective might of the Alliance’s armed forces. Analysts agree that Russia’s military strength and weaponry, despite its large military, pale compared to the advanced military equipment and highly trained troops of NATO members, let alone the ability it represents when these forces are combined.
As fate would have it, Ukraine wasn’t even near joining the alliance when Russia invaded in February 2022.
![Sweden and Finland want to join NATO. Here's how it would work](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107072604-Thumbnail_Digital_Originals_How_to_be_NATO_Clean.jpg?v=1654666706&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
This happened despite many years of fluctuating between aspirations for NATO membership and turning away from it — largely depending on the pro-Russian or pro-Western leanings of Ukraine’s leaders on the time. And, to be fair, a lot yo-yo from NATO officials over time as as to whether Ukraine and other post-Soviet states like Georgia should have the ability to hitch.
This doesn’t mean that NATO didn’t anticipate a war in Ukraine within the run-up to the invasion.
Russia has made it clear that if NATO doesn’t conform to its proposals in late 2021 to withdraw from deploying troops and weapons in Eastern Europe and to be certain that Ukraine never becomes a member of the alliance, that they are going to suffer the results. This, along with the amassing of some 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, showed Russia’s true intentions, even though it denied for months that it was planning an invasion.
![NATO-Russia is working to ease the crisis in Ukraine](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106999955-1641981350467-gettyimages-1066337510-TS099354.jpeg?v=1641989453&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
NATO found itself in a difficult position within the run-up to the war to stop an aggressive Putin, who apparently intended to rebuild the Soviet empire, starting with Ukraine, and didn’t wish to get embroiled in a conflict involving multiple nuclear powers.
Prior to the invasion, in January 2022, NATO’s Stoltenberg told the BBC: “We aren’t planning to deploy NATO troops in Ukraine … we’re focused on providing support,” before adding that “there is a difference between being a member of NATO.” and being a strong and highly valued partner like Ukraine.”
![Is military spending broken? The UK can offer some insights](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107197035-GettyImages-477566314.jpg?v=1680248594&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)