How will the war in Ukraine end?
This query plagues the smaller disputes over Western aid to the brave Ukrainian forces. Vladimir Putin’s decision to spend the winter with increasingly brutal attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets – akin to last Saturday’s deadly missile attack on an apartment constructing in Dnipro that killed dozens of individuals, including six children, is noteworthy.
Putin’s invasion must fail. Anything is a serious blow to US interests in Europe, NATO stability and the broader world order. On top of all of Moscow’s brutality, the war with Ukraine is each an attack on that order and a territorial gambit.
But Washington is mired in an escalation game that’s lethargic, confused – and reactive. Yes, we sent Ukraine a variety of aid – including lethal aid – but only after Putin first stepped up the violence. Even US “escalations” are uncertain. For instance, our modest gift of 1 Patriot air defense system carries all of the threats that President Joe Biden fears, but with minimal advantages: Ukraine needs more Patriots to be effective.
We also rejected MiG transfers from regional allies, opposed tank shipments, and refused more advanced tactical missile systems that may significantly increase Ukraine’s range – all on theory that he’s helping Ukraine hit Russia power persuade Putin to use nuclear weapons.
He and other top Russians proceed to threaten because this He’s working for the West to do no more.
Nevertheless, it is evident that more is required to force Putin to end the war. Military defeat now seems to be the one viable path to freedom and security for Ukraine. A negotiated deal seems out of the query because the Kremlin’s demands proceed to be ‘let’s win’.
Putin’s insane territorial claims would almost definitely exceed anything Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would agree to, while Zelensky and his government want all back, including the Crimea. Even when the West threatens to stop blackmailing Ukraine for some bad deal, Putin’s history shows that he’ll tear it apart for his own convenience.
The mild (to date) winter favored the resistance of the Ukrainians. And the deep-seated logistical and personnel problems of the Russian army bode in poor health for Putin’s massive call in troops.
Putin apparently wants to survive his path to victory, betting on each the desire of the West and success on the battlefield. Ukraine and its allies can overcome this approach by holding on tight.
But the final word victory relies on a US-led strategy that puts Ukraine ready to force it through Russia quit the fight.