China’s ‘modest’ growth target could appear disappointing: Citi
China’s growth targets announced over the weekend “weren’t a surprise, but could also be disappointing for some investors,” Citi’s chief China economist Xiangrong Yu and his team said in a Monday note.
“We consider Beijing could also be setting this modest target out of concern that it is going to miss its growth target for one more yr,” the economists wrote, noting that last yr the economy missed its target of “around 5.5%” for 2022.
“The federal government could also be concerned a few deterioration in sentiment should it make one other mistake,” economists wrote, adding that budget details suggest room for a bigger supply of presidency bonds, higher rates of interest, a tighter trade balance.
— Jihye Lee
Oil prices fall as China’s growth targets fall in need of driving commodity prices up
Oil prices fell after a Chinese report on the annual National People’s Congress didn’t include concrete steps towards rising commodity prices.
Growth in demand for goods in China is more likely to depend upon property ownership, which may even see only modest growth, Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a every day note.
“The special cap on Chinese local government bonds is being watched closely as it’s a serious tool for infrastructure projects,” Dhar said. He noted that the quantity set at 3.8 trillion yuan for 2023 was lower than the quantity of 4.15 trillion yuan set in 2022.
Brent crude oil futures recently fell 0.75% to $85.19 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.79% to $79.05 a barrel.
—Lee Ying Shan
UBS raises China growth forecast for 2023 from 4.9% to five.4%
UBS raised its 2023 growth forecast for China from 4.9% to five.4%, the corporate said in a report on Monday.
“The reopening of the economy goes higher than we expected – the dreaded Covid ‘second wave’ has not happened and there have been few signs of supply disruptions,” he said, adding that the worldwide economy is more resilient than previously predicted.
UBS also raised its 2024 growth forecast for the country to five.2% from its previous estimate of 4.8%, while lowering its inflation forecast for 2023 from 3% to 2.5%.
— Jihye Lee
TVB grows after announcing a take care of Taobao Alibaba
Shares of Hong Kong broadcaster TVB rose after a fourth straight session announcement partnered with the favored Alibaba Taobao marketplace to launch a joint e-commerce stream last week.
Its Hong Kong-listed shares rose 21% on Monday after Friday’s close of 51.6%, up 90.79% year-to-date.
TVB’s first live e-commerce broadcast will happen on Tuesday, the announcement said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia expects a 25 basis point hike on Tuesday
The Reserve Bank of Australia is ready to lift its money rate by 25 basis points to three.6%, in line with economists polled by Reuters.
This might mark the very best rate of interest since June 2012, when the money rate in Australia was 3.75%.
Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, noted that the tone of the central bank’s announcement could determine how far the RBA will raise rates of interest to rein in inflation.
Pointing to the RBA’s statement in regards to the need for further rate hikes “in the approaching months”, Simpson said: “Any adjustments to the wording of this sentence could mean the difference between one or two hikes.”
“A further increase in the approaching months would suggest yet one more hike, with the ultimate rate of interest at 3.85%,” he said.
— Jihye Lee
Within the South Korean economy, inflation falls in February
In keeping with Statistics Korea, South Korea’s consumer price index rose 4.8% yoy in February, at a slower rate than January’s 5.2%.
In comparison with a month earlier, prices rose by 0.3% amid a drop in food prices, while media rose by 28.4%.
This implies inflation within the economy fell below 5% for the primary time in ten months, Refinitiv data showed.
The Korean won weakened by 0.23% to 1298.72 against the US dollar after the inflation report.
Japan’s unions are demanding the most important wage increase since 1990
A survey by the Japan Confederation of Trade Unions found that national unions demanded a 4.49% wage increase in 2023. release.
This marks a median increase above 4% for the primary time since 1998, the organization said in its release, and a pointy increase from 2.97% in 2022.
— Jihye Lee
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Major averages close higher
Stocks closed higher on Friday, pushing the most important averages right into a winning week.
The Dow Jones industrial average increased by 387.40 points, or 1.17%, to 33,390.97. The S&P 500 climbed 1.61% to 4,045.64, a Nasdaq Composite it gained 1.97% to shut at 11,689.01.
Inside per week, the Dow reached 1.75%. The S&P was up 1.9% and the Nasdaq up 2.58%.
— Tanaya Maceel
A weaker labor market can result in risk-based trading, says David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, believes the stock market will see sustained growth once the labor market begins to contract in three to 4 months.
“Immediately we have now a situation where stock markets and credit markets appear to think they’ve more time to purchase before the economic boom really subsides,” Rosenberg told CNBC’s “Fast Money” program on Thursday.
“There isn’t a doubt that the economy will not be strong, but it surely must weaken rapidly. Unemployment needs to begin shrinking… I believe that is where you will discover risk in trade, he added.
The labor market began off with a staggering performance in 2023, with non-farm employment posting its biggest gain since July 2022. The Federal Reserve may reverse its tightening policy when the labor market shows weakness.
— Yun Lee
Brent crude prices fall after reports that the UAE is considering leaving OPEC
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have gotten increasingly strained, in line with the report by Wall Street Journal. Citing Emirati officials, the report says the UAE is debating whether it should leave OPEC.
News of a possible oil cartel breakup has chilled Brent oil prices. At one point in Friday’s trading, prices fell almost 3% before rebounding. Recently, the worldwide benchmark fell 0.85% to $84.03.
The 2 oil-producing nations are vying for influence and disagree over the direction of the war in Yemen, in line with the report.
Oil prices fell nearly 3% before rising after reports that the UAE could leave OPEC.
—Christina Cheddar Berk