In a bar fight that is the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination, polls indicate that twice-indicted Donald Trump still holds a big lead. But his opponents (i.e. Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, most recently Chris Christie, etc.) appear to be increasing day by day and attacking him in a way they have not done in the past. It gets personal, ugly, unpredictable and unimaginable not to observe.
Less noticeable is what’s happening on the Democratic side, where President Sleepy Joe Biden is being challenged by a pair of unelected eccentrics. It looks like he might be the party’s nominee in 2024, despite waning mental and physical acumen, various political missteps, or any fallout from Hunter Biden’s laptop GOP poll.
It is difficult, bordering on unimaginable, to remove an incumbent president running for a second term – even someone as unqualified as Sleepy Joe.
Or perhaps not. With every sandbag downfall, every Rose Garden address blurred, constant inflation and infinite border crisis, Biden seems an increasing number of unfit for office by the minute.
He is president again; party elders in the backroom, chewing cigars, not select candidates. If he wants the nomination, it’s his. Unless someday, perhaps soon, or a couple of minutes before he’s officially nominated for next 12 months’s party convention, or when he’s nose to nose with a GOP candidate, he cannot get off the bed. Or much more loses the ability to talk and reason. Perhaps Dr. Jill Biden confers with real doctors and in some way convinces her stubborn hubby that he should retire.
![Donald Trump](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/Election_2024_Trump_04216-fd9e9.jpg?w=1024)
That last scenario sounds crazy, I do know. It is also clearly likely, and increasingly so, my Wall Street insiders tell me, who’re paid loads to measure such Black Swans.
They are saying it should lead the Democratic Party and the country into chaos, especially if Biden falls sooner reasonably than later. If he is nominated or on the brink, party delegates might be given over to Sleeping Joe and are mostly to maintain him. There, I’m told, barter and confusion begin.
Its unpopular and clearly equally inept vice-president, Kamala Harris, may very well be nominated as a candidate, because in the PC-obsessed Democratic Party, a girl of color, regardless of how unqualified, is simply not avoided.
Unless some real players, like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, do something crazy at or shortly after the convention, bend the rules and throw a re-nomination.
A scenario as crazy as all of it sounds is circulating on Wall Street. You hear it at private dinners with the bosses, and I’m aware about it. And increasingly in research reports circulating amongst financial advisers, including one recently published by the investment firm Piper Sandler, which fell into my hands.
Why is Wall Street concerned a few potential civil war inside the Democratic Party? This is a superb query price investigating. Wall Street has a love/hate relationship with volatility. Experienced traders like it. They seek to extract value from volatile markets affected by uncertain fiscal or monetary policy or political shocks. Not knowing whether a presidential candidate – or no less than the current president – is aware is actually something that may shake up the markets and provides traders a chance to reap the benefits of price dislocation.
![Kamala Harris](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/AFP_33HQ6P3-1.jpg?w=1024)
Aversion to chaos
Meanwhile, Wall Street banks are also coping with a number of big corporations and wealthy people investing for retirement. They hate market chaos and the price volatility it causes.
It’s hard to cost a post-IPO secondary offer if the markets don’t reflect true value, which happens more often than you’re thinking that when the stock panics over something unexpected, such as Biden’s decision to abdicate at the last minute. The identical goes for investors trying to arrange retirement portfolios, which is why Wall Street is beginning to worry about Sleepy Joe’s future.
And it could worsen when it comes to market volatility. One in every of the doomsday scenarios Piper refers to is Biden resigning after being nominated – again a possibility given his declining health. It will be good in a presidential campaign that Harris, hated in the party, declared himself a candidate. This might trigger a nasty last-minute battle for a seat on the ticket with a number of uncertainty for the markets.
As Piper Sandler noted in her report, these extreme scenarios do not have to occur. Biden could come to his senses and admit what a growing variety of Americans imagine: he is not a bustling 80-year-old. He is physically and mentally weak at a time when the country is facing major global threats (Chinese militancy, Russian expansionism), an uncertain economy, not to say an entire mess he cannot fix because he cannot spend a protracted day in the Oval Office.
He could also be resigning before the end of the 12 months – the sooner the higher, in keeping with Piper’s evaluation. This provides Newsom and Pritzker time to get to the state ballots and offers Democratic voters the opportunity to nominate someone less lame than Biden or Harris, who has failed every task she has been given (the limit at the top of the list).
The American people may even be spared the agony of listening to her equally lame depth tests where she makes the bumbling Biden sound downright Churchill.
Crisis averted? Probably not, because the markets can have to fret about the GOP nominee – one other real possibility that some red-headed lunatic who chooses Twitter, fights, incites riots and faces multiple indictments is the candidate and possibly wins the presidency in 2024.