Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping leave after a reception in honor of the Chinese leader’s visit to Moscow’s Kremlin, March 21, 2023.
Grigory Sysoev | Sputnik | via Reuters
China has been keen to position itself as a peace broker to end the war between Russia and Ukraine since the starting of the invasion, offering mediation between the countries shortly after Russian troops crossed the border.
But Beijing remained distinctly close to Russia as the war progressed, refusing to condemn or criticize the ongoing armed aggression against Ukraine. It also stays ideologically allied with Moscow in its anti-Western stance, with either side declaring their desire to see a more “multipolar world.”
And despite quite a few calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and even a visit to Moscow in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping called his Ukrainian counterpart for the first time in weeks.
During the call, Xi said he would send special representatives to Ukraine and hold talks with all sides to achieve a ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to what Beijing describes as a “crisis.”
Efforts to negotiate a peace deal are gaining momentum this week, with China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, scheduled to visit Ukraine, Russia and several other European countries to discuss “a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine,” the Chinese foreign ministry said. said Friday.
There isn’t any doubt that China wants an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and as soon as possible. It’s widely believed that Beijing sees the unpredictable nature of the war, the unknown endpoint and the conflict-induced global economic instability as very undesirable uncomfortable side effects.
But as he tries to position himself as the honest broker who could end one in all Europe’s bloodiest conflicts in many years – and who pitted Russia (and sometimes China) against the West – there are query marks about China’s perceived neutrality, diplomatic skills and ultimately their final phase as a mediator.
Political analysts and observers of China note that in the end, Beijing doesn’t really care who “wins” the war – or what form the peace deal takes. They are saying what matters to Beijing is that it becomes an international partner that may bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table and mediate an end to the war.
China’s essential focus
“China is more focused on winning the peace than on who will win the war between Russia and Ukraine,” said Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution and previously a senior director for Asia at the Obama administration’s National Security Council.
“Beijing would love to have a voice in defining the contours of the future European security architecture. Beijing would also like to be seen as a key factor in Ukraine’s reconstruction and as a key actor in Europe’s wider post-conflict reconstruction.
China is keen to make the most of recent successes in global diplomacy, notably the mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which led regional rivals to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies in one another’s countries.
Analysts note that China’s next attempt at global diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine isn’t without self-interest.
“After all, China isn’t moving into this diplomatic quest due to altruistic concerns,” Cheng Chen, a professor of political science at the University of Albany, State University of Recent York, told CNBC on Wednesday.
“As China increasingly positions itself as a superpower, it has every reason to show its diplomatic clout as a worldwide mediator, especially after its recent success in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As well as, China can bind Russia to its side much more if it manages to negotiate a deal that saves Russia’s face,” she added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talks by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kiev, April 26, 2023.
Press Office of the President of Ukraine | Reuters
One other comfortable by-product of Chinese intervention would be that it could refer to the Global South, a term commonly used to describe developing countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania “which have largely not taken sides in the conflict, in addition to some European powers that don’t want to see a protracted war in Europe,” Chen said.
“So as to gain the support of those countries, China wants to polish its image as a peacemaker, as opposed to the US approach of “adding fuel to the fire”.
Can China do it?
China’s bid for a peace broker isn’t the first in this war; Turkey also took the position of mediator between the belligerents, helping to negotiate a key grain export deal and trying to hold talks early in the war.
Nevertheless, these broke on either side having territorial “red lines” – essentially giving up territory lost (or gained) – which they may not cross. Since that point China has proposed a “peace plan” for Ukraine however it was deemed to lack substance and concrete steps towards a ceasefire and agreement.
Whether China now has the diplomatic skills needed to bring Russia and Ukraine back to the negotiating table stays to be seen. China’s general support for Russia has not gone unnoticed in Kiev, with analysts saying it has hurt Beijing’s perception of an “honest broker” from the start.
“There is a large asymmetry between Sino-Russian and Sino-Ukrainian relations,” Alicja Bachulska, a politician at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“It took Xi Jinping 14 months to talk to Zelensky over the phone, while during the same time, China’s top leadership had greater than 20 high-level interactions with Russian leaders,” she noted.
“China didn’t recognize the aggressor – Russia – and continues to blame the US and NATO for the war. Any significant “help” from China would require Beijing to recognize the Ukrainian viewpoint on this war and Ukrainian agency, and this is extremely unlikely given China’s strategic interests in this war – namely to undermine the US-led international system and discredit the liberal liberals more broadly democracies.”
CNBC contacted China’s foreign ministry for comment and has yet to receive a response.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the signing ceremony after the talks in the Kremlin in Moscow, March 21, 2023.
Vladimir Astapkovich | AFP | Getty’s paintings
Analysts note that while China’s approach to the warring parties is unbalanced, its apparent proximity to Moscow can still be used to the advantage of either side.
The war has given China “an opportunity in global diplomacy,” Ian Bremmer, founder and chairman of Eurasia Group, said in emailed comments, noting that “Xi has more influence over Putin than anyone else.”
Chen of the University of Albany agreed that while China’s perceived lack of neutrality may be a weakness, it may very well be an asset.
“China is widely seen as too friendly to Russia to be truly ‘neutral’ when it comes to potential conflict mediation. Nevertheless, precisely because China is one in all Russia’s few remaining international partners and has provided Russia with the crucial diplomatic and economic support since the invasion, it has the ability to bring Russia to the negotiating table and influence Russia’s position on ending the conflict,” Chen said.
China’s Foreign Ministry said in a press release last Friday that since the start of the war, which it describes as a “crisis”, China has taken an “objective and fair stance and actively promoted peace talks.” have in mind the legitimate concerns of all parties.”
“The upcoming visit by the Chinese representative reiterates China’s commitment to promoting peace talks and will remain on the side of peace,” it said.
The world continued to feel the “uncomfortable side effects of the crisis,” the ministry said, adding that its goal was to “proceed to play a constructive role and construct greater international consensus on ending hostilities, starting peace talks and stopping the situation from escalating.”
Every room will be hard won
Nobody underestimates the challenges potential peace brokers face.
Fifteen months of war have hardened Ukraine and shown that it’ll not go over to Russia, and for President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the stakes are too high for him to hand over territorial gains, especially when it comes to areas where Russia is more embedded like Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
Ukraine says it’ll not agree to anything apart from the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from occupied territory and the restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea and 4 other regions Russia annexed last yr, even though it still doesn’t fully occupy any of them.
Ukrainian soldiers of the eightieth Brigade fire artillery towards Bakhmut during the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, April 13, 2023.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty’s paintings
Ukraine is probably going to want to see how its current counter-offensive plays out before approaching China with any offer to broker a peace deal, fearing that any deal might involve granting territory to Russia.
Ukrainian analysts are definitely skeptical that China can or will be able to help Ukraine.
“They are going to propose a ceasefire or a peace deal on Russian terms, which is clearly not in our favor,” Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military expert and head of the Center for Military Legal Studies in Kiev, told CNBC.
He added that Ukraine can only accept a peace agreement that respects the country’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence, and that before any agreement can be reached, Ukraine’s territories would have to be withdrawn from occupation by Russian forces.
Musijenko said that he didn’t expect that “Chinese peace agreements and draft peace agreements will mean something good for us because they appear at Ukraine from the Russian standpoint.”
“They will not be objective in this case,” he added.