Eli Lilly beat investor high expectations on the American Diabetes Association conference this week, solidifying its leadership in metabolic medicine and prompting Wall Street analysts to revisit sales forecasts. Analysts all said the news was more likely to boost Lilly’s stock, which has already surged greater than 26% this 12 months. Not less than one analyst felt the news was strong enough to revise its long-term sales forecast immediately. The updates included recent data on phase 2 trials of weight-loss drugs or forgliprone, an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, and retatrutide, a next-generation triagonist that mixes three incretin hormones — GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon. Analysts were encouraged by the outcomes of each studies at an early stage. With orforgliprone, chubby or obese patients could ultimately get a neater method to take GLP-1. In the meanwhile, these drugs are frequently delivered by injection once every week. LLY YTD Mountain Eli Lilly shares set a recent 52-week trading high on Tuesday. Much more impressive were the outcomes of the retatrutide study, which raised the bar for effectiveness. Patients within the study lost a median of over 24% of their starting weight at the top of 48 weeks. What’s more, some showed no signs that their weight reduction was stabilizing, suggesting they could proceed to drop pounds. These drugs could add to the success Lilly is already seeing with tirzepatide, a GLP-1 drug already approved for type 2 diabetes under the brand name Mounjaro. The drug is anticipated to be approved as a weight-loss agent by the top of the 12 months and join Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic markets. Each use semaglutide, but Ozempic is marketed as a treatment for type 2 diabetes, while Wegovy is especially for weight reduction. All-time high Lilly shares hit an intraday high of $467.98 on Tuesday before closing up 2.6% to $464.65. Earlier within the day, Barclays analyst Carter Gould raised Lilly’s share price goal to $500 from $420, up 10% from Monday’s closing price. Gould now predicts sales of Lilly’s incretin drugs to achieve $49 billion in 2030, up from the previous $38 billion to $40 billion. “In practice, we are actually modeling Mounjaro’s growth in addition to subsequent shifts within the shares of those next-wave assets over the second half of the last decade, with Mounjaro peaking in 2028. 2030 and $42 billion in 2032,” Gould wrote in a research memo. “We project the full portfolio of Mounjaro + Orforglipron + Retatrutide to achieve $48-49 billion over the period 2030-2032, with prices declining.” Gould said orforgliprone appears to be a “best-in-class” oral drug. Many analysts see oral GLP-1 drugs as helpful for patients who don’t need to inject themselves. Analysts also say that oral medication will help ease delivery bottlenecks which have been an issue on this category. Geoff Meacham of Bank of America said retatrutide “exceeded expectations” for weight reduction. He noted that the majority other studies involved a bigger proportion of girls who tended to lose a greater percentage of weight throughout the study. “This is essential because while the general weight reduction of twenty-two.4% was impressive when checked out individually for men and ladies, the burden loss was 21.9% and 28.5% respectively, with women losing lower than still a plateau. As well as, 100% of patients lost ≥5% and 26% of patients lost ≥30% of their weight, which we consider quite impressive,” said Meacham, reiterating his buy advice for Lilly and the $500 price goal. Analysts also found that within the retatrutide study, there was a typical reduction in liver fat of greater than 5% within the subgroup of patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. “Given these results, we consider retatrutide can have a job within the pre-fibrosis NASH market (which largely overlaps with the drug’s primary indications for obesity/T2D),” JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott wrote in a research note. Schott also described the burden loss as “impressive” and said it could likely compare favorably with next-generation drug Novo CagriSema, which is anticipated to point out weight reduction of greater than 25% when it releases its next update. Forming as a duopoly Several analysts said the market appears to be forming as a duopoly of Novo and Lilly. BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman expects Lilly to dominate the market into the 2030s. He estimates that the Indianapolis-based drugmaker is outperforming with a $505 price goal. “These data definitely put Lilly on the forefront of the ‘metabolic revolution’ driven by incretin therapy,” Seigerman wrote. “We’re modeling Lilly’s broader GLP-1RA+ franchise as a chance for a greater than $50 billion metabolic franchise, including Mounjaro with the advantage of retatrutide (triple G) and oral (anchored by orforglipron),” he said. “These data support our thesis of continued dominance and what appears to be an expanding addressable market, options that might increase access and lengthen treatment times.” Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn, who has a $507 price goal on Lilly shares, said he was modeling the launch of oral GLP-1 orforgliprone and retatrutide (GGG) in 2026 and 2027, respectively. — Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed to this report.