French President Emmanuel Macron.
Ludwik Marin | afp | Getty’s paintings
President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reform, pushed through by the overthrow of the country’s parliament, could finally wipe out what the French leader has been working on for the past six years, political analysts have told CNBC.
Macron presents himself as a centrist politician. Wanting to develop into president in 2017, he decided to found his own party (La Republique en Marche!, renamed Renaissance) and tried to interrupt with traditional conservative and socialist attitudes. It positioned itself as the alternative of extremism and an answer to the slightly sedate politics of the past.
He easily defeated far-right Marine Le Pen within the 2017 and 2022 elections – but analysts now predict a hazy outlook as Macron is ineligible to run in 2027.
Macron’s recent decision to make use of special legislative powers to push through a rise within the retirement age adds to wider dissatisfaction with the political system, Armin Steinbach, professor of European law and economics at HEC Business School, told CNBC last week.
AND vote published earlier this month by French business channel BFM TV showed that if there was a vote today between Macron and Le Pen of the National Assembly, the incumbent president would lose by 45% of the vote. Macron won the 2022 election with 58.5% of the vote.
Macron is not seducing anyone and that is a part of the issue.
Shahin Vallee
senior research fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations
Macron popularity rating worsened following the pension reforms. At the tip of March, almost 70% of those polled disapproved of the president, in comparison with 61% originally of the yr.
“The underside line is that it definitely increases the rift in society,” Steinbach added.
There are 11 days of protests against the brand new pension laws in France. The proposed law raises the retirement age from 62 to 64, a necessity for Macron and his government to balance public funds.
Without sufficient parliamentary support for the reforms, the French government used Art. 49 sec. 3 of the structure, which suggests the bill passes the lower house with out a vote. The move has angered many French lawmakers and residents, and France’s highest court is set to rule on Friday whether the proposals comply with the country’s structure.
Asked if Macron’s actions would spur more extremist parties, Shahin Vallée, a senior researcher on the German Council on Foreign Relations, said: “Yes, absolutely.”
Vallée, Macron’s former economic adviser when he was French economy minister, added that the reforms would “polarize” voters and would have “catastrophic medium-term consequences for French society.”
Le Pen expressed her opposition to the pension reform. Within the 2022 election, she said she was in favor of keeping the retirement age at 62 and lowering it to 60 for staff who began their careers before the age of 20.
No successor
Along with potentially greater support for parties from the political extremes, experts have mentioned how the shortage of a transparent successor to Macron may also affect future elections.
“Macron is not seducing anyone and that is a part of the issue,” Vallée said, adding that “Renaissance [party] it is a one-man party.”
Macron is in his second term as president and the French structure prevents him from running again in 2027. With no strong candidate to steer his party in the subsequent election, the centrist party may struggle to win enough votes.
![President Emmanuel Macron is using executive action to raise the retirement age in France](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107210904-16790754011679075398-28622123778-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1679077007&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y)
Three different spokespersons for the Renaissance party, including general secretary Stéphane Séjourné, weren’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
However the proven fact that there is no clear successor from Macron’s party is also tactical.
“None of them are involved in being the official successor,” Steinbach said, naming Bruno Le Maire, the present finance minister, and Edouard Philippe, the previous prime minister, as potential successors. He argued that a “natural break” with Macron could be more helpful to potential successors in garnering votes, as it will be easier for them to distance themselves from the negative connections of the incumbent president.
Vallée also said he would not be surprised if Macron took a job within the European Union after this mandate.
In interview from Politico François Bayrou, Macron’s predominant ally, also said that Macron’s involvement in French politics wouldn’t end after his second term as president.