Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Forward Movement Party (center), at a rally in Bangkok, Thailand, May 18, 2023.
Valeria Mongelli | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Thailand’s preliminary election results were a triumph for the progressive Move Forward party, but its reforms threaten conservative forces that might act to prevent a pro-democracy party from governing.
Move Forward leader and elected Prime Minister candidate Pita Limjaroenrat announced a six-party coalition that features Pheu Thai, a populist, pro-democracy party that got here second in the election.
This provides the coalition 310 seats in the 500-seat lower house of parliament. Whoever the coalition appoints prime minister must win 376 parliamentary votes – a combined number from the 250-member military-appointed Senate and lower house. Voting for the prime minister is predicted in August, after the election results have been approved by the Electoral Commission.
Analysts say Move Forward faces the difficult task of winning the remaining 66 votes due to controversial proposed policies – a recent structure, ending military dominance in politics, abolishing compulsory conscription, abolishing business monopolies and revising the lese majesty law that punishes insults to the king with prison.
The Move Forward program is an affront and a frontal challenge to established centers of power.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak
professor at Chulalongkorn University
The Move Forward party recently said that potential coalition partners haven’t got to support its stance on the Lése-Majesty because it plans to submit it to parliament independently – its refusal to compromise could also isolate potential allies and most of the junta-led Senate.
Ahead of the prime minister’s vote, political observers predict mixed outcomes, including the possibility of coercive intervention by the country’s powerful military-monarchical alliance.
“The Move Forward agenda is an affront and a frontal challenge to established centers of power,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University and a senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies.
“It’s probably about when and the way – not if – they are going to attack.”
Establishment-led escalation
Given Move Forward’s dogmatic stance, experts expect some sort of power play that may align the results with the preferences of the establishment.
Arch-royalists may go up to now as to ban Move Forward, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned in the report.
It is a likely scenario as royalist-conservative elites have power over official bodies equivalent to the Constitutional Court, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the Electoral Commission. For instance, the opposition party Future Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020 for violating electoral law in the 2019 elections – a charge that Human Rights Watch was established “politically motivated”.
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“The courts could find ways to annul enough Move Forward and Pheu Thai victories to change the balance of power,” analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reiterated in a separate report.
There’s also a probability that Pita himself may very well be the goal.
He was recently charged with violating the structure for being a small shareholder in a now-defunct media company while serving as a member of parliament, which he denies. According to Pongsudhirak, this may very well be a possible reason for his disqualification and allowing the less radical Pheu Thai to lead the coalition.
There’s a precedent for Pita’s case to be cleared up, noted Napisa Waitoolkiat, a political scientist at Naresuan University.
Conservative forces have all the crucial tools to prevent Move Forward from taking power.
Susan Patton
Lowa Institute
She said that in 2001, the Constitutional Court acquitted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of concealing assets, even after he was accused of corruption. “If the elites select to respect Thai votes, they’ll actually do the same this time as they did with Thaksin in 2001.”
The Senate has other ways to block the move forward. According to CSIS, senators could abstain from voting and refuse to approve the Pit, leading to a deadlock. T
The Senate could also revoke the election of a major minister by lower house MPs unless a hard-to-achieve supermajority of 376 votes is obtained, Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, said in a report. She pointed at statements of senators who’ve suggested that they are going to not mechanically support the candidate of the winning party.
“Conservative forces have all the crucial tools at their disposal to prevent a Move Forward takeover of presidency,” Patton concluded.
Pheu Thai betrayal
Led by the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin, Pheu Thai is an opposition party that has taken a more cautious approach to communicating with the monarchy. Analysts say there may be a probability he could break ranks with Move Forward to work with pro-military parties to negotiate strategic gains.
“Given Pheu Thai’s desire for power, the party leadership may view Move Forward’s progressive stance and its threat to the monarchy as a political responsibility,” CFR said in its report. “If Pheu Thai abandons its pro-democracy peers in the pursuit of power, the Bhumjaithai Party is probably going to play a big role as king-maker in coalition constructing.”
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Known for its strong support for marijuana legalization, Bhumjaithai is taken into account ideologically flexible because it is pro-establishment but open to working with pro-democracy groups.
There’s one key reason why Pheu Thai may opt out of Move Forward, said Pongsudhirak – and that’s “the conclusion of a coalition deal that might include Thaksin’s return to Thailand from exile on relaxed terms related to his conviction and imprisonment.”
Nevertheless, doing so has long-term repercussions for Pheu Thai’s image.
“Pheu Thai will run the risk of being electorally penalized by pro-democracy voters who’re key supporters of Pheu Thai in the future,” Waitoolkiat warned.
Playing the wait and see game.
Move Forward’s clear advantage in the preliminary election results gives it a transparent leadership mandate in the eyes of the public. As history shows, any attempt to thwart this might end in widespread protests.
When the Forward Future Party disbanded in 2020, it sparked mass protests led by youth.
“If a major minister who isn’t a representative of the Move Forward-Pheu Thai alliance is elected and as an alternative comes from pro-military parties and their allies and senators, expect large street protests,” he told CFR.
In such a scenario, there may be a probability that the military will stage one other coup d’état, CSIS added. Thailand is not any stranger to coups, having experienced a minimum of 19 coups since 1932. according to the think tank.
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Officials who’ve just recovered from the pandemic slump might also not want street demonstrations that would threaten investor confidence and economic growth.
“While the Thai military has historically been prepared to risk protests from rural Northeast Thailand, Move Forward’s impressive victories in Bangkok and other urban centers may make the military think twice,” Patton said. she referred comments from the Thai Chamber of Commerce this indicated a desire for stable government amongst business groups somewhat than one other period of political turmoil.
“The establishment may due to this fact feel that allowing Move Forward to take office is a wiser tactical move,” she continued. “In previous periods of instability, equivalent to the 2014 coup, the establishment acted when it felt all options had been exhausted.”
“This time, policy makers can calculate that they’ll let events run their course and exercise legal options to act later if red lines are crossed,” Patton added.