J.M. Smucker ‘s plan to purchase Twinkies -maker Hostess Brands is a dangerous move, if Morgan Stanley’s latest research is correct. The firm revisited its August call that a latest class of weight reduction medications would hamper growth at some food and beverage firms . This time it backed up its thesis with additional demographic data about grocery shoppers from Numerator Insights in addition to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The outcomes aren’t rosy for Ding Dongs. “Our evaluation reinforces the view that snacking firms similar to TWNK are more likely to be most adversely affected by GLP-1 adoption, while weight management food firms like SMPL and BRBR may gain advantage,” Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman wrote in a note to clients on Monday. BellRing makes protein shakes and powders and owns the PowerBar brand. Its stock is up a whopping 60% 12 months up to now. But Simply Good , which owns brands like Atkins and Quest that make ready-to-drink shakes, snacks and frozen meals, has seen its stock fall nearly 15% over the identical time period. In August, Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect increased adoption of GLP-1 medications like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy will result in a 1.3% drop in calorie consumption within the U.S. by 2035. The estimate was based on the concept patients taking the burden loss drugs typically reduce their day by day calorie intake by 20% to 30% as they reduce on day by day meals by 20% and snacks by 40%, the analysts said. In addition they assumed on the time that these same consumers were more more likely to buy indulgent snacks and packaged foods sold by brands like Smucker, Hostess and others. The brand new report backs this up. “Across our coverage, Numerator Insights data highlight that almost all center-store packaged food firms barely over-index to consumers with obesity,” Kaufman said. Also, these same foods are the kinds of items that buyers are more likely to reduce on once they are getting serious about shedding pounds, she said. The evaluation showed Hostess was probably the most exposed to shoppers with obesity and kind 2 diabetes. Individuals with each conditions are also almost certainly to qualify for anti-obesity medication, the analysts said. On Monday, Smucker’s stock was down about 7%, and at one point hit a 52-week low of $129.00, after it said it might pay $5.6 billion to purchase Hostess in a stock-and-cash deal. Hostess stock soared 19% on the news. Other food stocks with higher exposure to customers with obesity include Conagra , Kraft Heinz and Smucker, the report said, citing the Numerator data. “Importantly, BRBR and SMPL over-index to consumers who’re addressing their obesity through lifestyle changes and prescribed drugs, reinforcing their complementary qualities and potential category tailwinds from GLP-1 drugs,” the report said. In Morgan Stanley’s original report, the analysts also emphasized that food and beverage firms could ease the impact of the trend by reformulating products to have fewer calories and sugar or by shifting product mix to healthier items. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.