Timothee Chalamet stars in Warner Bros.’ “Dune.”
Warner Bros.
LOS ANGELES – Warner Bros. has a sandworm-sized dilemma on its hands: Keep the autumn release date for its highly anticipated “Dune: Part Two” and risk not having its star-studded forged market it – or bump it into next 12 months and potentially miss out on a dominant run at lucrative premium movie screens.
As two Hollywood strikes rage on, movie writers and stars aren’t permitted to hype their projects, due to strike rules. The longer the work stoppages keep going, the more likely it’s studios will delay releases as production shutdowns choke the movie release pipeline.
Already, a handful of titles – including Ethan Coen’s “Drive Away Dolls,” the sequel to “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” and the Emma Stone-led “Poor Things” – have moved to later dates due to the labor disruption. “Dune: Part Two,” a science fiction epic based on Frank Herbert’s seminal novel, could find yourself the largest title to move. Speculation has swirled in regards to the sequel leaving its Nov. 3 slot for the reason that Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists went on strike last month.
After the stunning success of “Barbie,” and with doubts growing about December’s “Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom,” “Dune: Part Two” can be a essential 2023 release for Warner Bros. Its predecessor excelled on the box office throughout the pandemic despite being released day and date on streaming service HBO Max (now just called Max). It racked up 10 Academy Award nominations, taking home six trophies.
With pandemic restrictions lifted on movie theaters, expectations are that “Dune: Part Two” would outpace the nearly $400 million the prior film tallied at the worldwide box office in 2021 on a reported budget of $165 million.
“As one in all the largest and most anticipated movies of the all-important and prestigious holiday season, ‘Dune: Part Two’ is one in all the crown jewels of Warner Bros.’ end of 12 months lineup and has much riding on its cinematic shoulders,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.
Warner Bros. didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
While the Writers Guild of America has returned to the bargaining table with producers, negotiations are moving slowly.
Meanwhile, the producers have not contacted the opposite striking guild, SAG-AFTRA, to resume talks. SAG-AFTRA has also promised not to grant interim agreements to any WGA-covered productions produced within the U.S., meaning these projects cannot start or proceed filming or be promoted by energetic guild members in the event that they are released.
There’s real fear that the labor fight will drag on, as well.
“I feel it’s gonna go into next 12 months,” said Steven Schiffman, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and a former executive at National Geographic. “I feel it’s gonna get to a extremely painful process.”
To ‘Dune’ or not to ‘Dune’
The lack to have actors promote film releases is one in all the foremost headwinds facing “Dune: Part Two.”
Typically, studios will begin marketing their movies in earnest, beyond trailers and posters, within the six to eight weeks leading up to a movie’s release. These efforts often include late night talk show appearances by forged members, taped interviews and junkets, in addition to international promotional trips.
If SAG-AFTRA doesn’t reach a deal by the center of September, the marketing campaign for the sequel won’t have the ability to utilize its star-studded ensamble to promote the film.
Alongside industry veterans like Christopher Walken, Stellan Skarsgard, Javier Bardem, Josh Brolin, Dave Bautista and Jason Momoa, the film features 4 of Hollywood’s hottest young stars.
Zendaya, Timothee Chalamet, Florence Pugh and Austin Butler collectively have greater than 200 million followers on Instagram and are trending faces on TikTok, Twitter and other social media platforms.
“Without that, they forgo an enormous chunk of Gen Z going to see that movie,” said Alicia Reese, vp of equity research at Wedbush Securities.
She noted that older moviegoers who’re fans of the book and saw the primary “Dune” will show up to theaters, but younger audiences might miss out on the flick without promotion from these stars.
“Missing out on that, that is damaging,” Reese said, “But is it damaging enough to not show the movie in any respect? Because in the event that they move it, they risk losing that basically prime IMAX spot.”
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In 2022, 15% of all domestic tickets sold were for premium screenings, with the common ticket costing $15.92, according to EntTelligence data. A regular ticket costs a median of $11.29.
If “Dune: Part Two” moves into next 12 months, it runs the chance of not finding a weekend, or multiple weekends, where it is going to have the ability to capture a significant slice of premium screens or not have the ability to hold them for several weeks of its run.
Moreover, if it holds to its current date, other movies could move and it could find itself with limited competition and the flexibility to capture more audience attention.
“Every studio with a movie on the calendar is confronting how to take care of similar such dilemmas,” said Dergarabedian.
Yet to are available 2023 are Disney and Marvel’s “The Marvels,” Lionsgate’s “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes,” Disney Animation’s “Wish,” AppleTV+’s “Napoleon.” Warner Bros. has other big titles, too: “Wonka,” the “Aquaman” sequel and “The Color Purple.”
“There are practical arguments in support of ‘Dune: Part Two’ each moving and staying put,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “For the health of the industry overall, I feel the scales still tip in favor of remaining in November.”
While “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” have injected nearly a billion dollars into the domestic box office’s coffers within the last month, there are few blockbuster releases slated for the rest of the 12 months, the “Dune” sequel amongst them.
A depleted fourth-quarter movie slate could hurt exhibition partners like AMC, Cinemark and Regal which are heavily reliant on latest content.
Moving “Dune: Part Two” could possibly provoke other studios to delay big releases until next 12 months, according to Robbins.
“Frankly, the back half of this 12 months doesn’t need anymore of a challenge trying to live up to the strong spring and summer we have seen on the box office,” he said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.