An individual holds a ballot paper at a polling station in Ankara on May 14, 2023 in the parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey.
Adem Altan | afp | Getty’s paintings
Tens of millions of Turks go to the polls on Sunday in what is about to be Turkey’s most vital election in twenty years, the results of which may have ramifications far beyond its own borders.
The country of 85 million people will hold each presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. For the presidency – which is imminent – if no candidate wins greater than 50% of the vote, a second round of voting will happen two weeks later.
Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces his hardest test yet after twenty years in power, grappling with public anger over deteriorating economic conditions and a slow government response to a series of devastating earthquakes in February that killed greater than 50,000 people.
His principal opponent, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), is running as a unity candidate representing six different parties, each of which wants to remove Erdogan from power.
In an arguably game-changing development, one in all the 4 presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, withdrew from the race on Thursday. The previous CHP member was heavily criticized for splitting the opposition vote in a way that may hurt Kilicdaroglu’s possibilities.
Now that Ince is out of the race, his votes could go to Erdogan’s biggest rival, Kilicdaroglu, helping him tremendously and causing more trouble for the 69-year-old Erdogan.
One other key factor will probably be turnout: greater than 5 million young Turks will probably be voting for the first time, and the higher the turnout of young people, the higher for the challenger and the worse for the incumbent, say election analysts.
Campaign posters of the thirteenth presidential candidate and chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Kemal Kiliçdaroglu (left) and the president of the Republic of Turkey and president of the Justice Development Party (AKP) Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) are visible.
Tunahan Turhan | Sopa Images | Light Rocket | Getty’s paintings
With the stakes so high, many inside and outdoors the country are asking if Erdogan can contest the final result if he doesn’t win.
“The most certainly tactic he’ll use to try to tilt the votes will probably be to use his influence in the Elections Commission (YSK), the courts and the media to construct a narrative that either the election ought to be rerun or that it is prohibited,” said Ryan Bohl, senior policy analyst. Middle East and North Africa at Rane. Erdogan did so in 2019, when his party narrowly lost in the Istanbul mayoral race, only to lose again by a bigger margin after demanding a re-election.
Some even fear violence and instability if the final result is known as into query, which might make Turkey’s already damaged economy more unstable. Turkish and foreign analysts and human rights defenders have been sounding the alarm for years increasingly autocratic governments from the Erdogan administration.
CNBC asked the office of the Turkish Presidency for comment.
“So Much to Lose”
The final result of the election and its impact on stability in a rustic that sits at the crossroads between Europe and Asia and is home to NATO’s second-largest army is of great importance each domestically and internationally.
“The stakes for President Erdogan and his AKP (Justice and Development Party) are so high for the first time as his 20-year rule in Turkey may come to an end on condition that the united opposition managed to maintain a robust alliance and stay on a positive campaign constructing hope,” said Hakan Akbas, managing director of Strategic Advisory Services, a consulting firm based between Istanbul and Washington.
He noted that this is comparable to “what Istanbul mayor Emrak Imamoglu did to win twice against AKP candidate Erdogan in the 2019 mayoral election.”
Imamoglu, a preferred figure widely expected to run for president as a formidable opponent to Erdogan, was sentenced to nearly three years in prison and barred from politics in December for what the court described as insulting the judges of the Supreme Election Council (YSK). Imamoglu and his supporters say the accusations are purely political and that Erdogan and his party influenced them to sabotage his political ambitions.
Turkish President and Justice and Development Party (AK) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks as he and his wife Emine Erdogan attend an election rally in Mardin, Turkiye, May 10, 2023.
Turkish Presidency | information materials | Anadolu Agency | Getty’s paintings
Politically, Turkey could be very divided, with candidates using polarizing and fear-mongering messages to galvanize voters. Nonetheless, for many Turkish residents, the economy comes first as the country is experiencing a cost-of-living crisis, with official inflation hovering around 50% and a currency that has lost 77% of its value against the dollar in five years time.
“Turkey’s next president will face the challenge of restoring economic stability and state institutions resembling the central bank, treasury and wealth fund, and rebuilding investor confidence,” Akbas told CNBC.
“The country suffers from historically low foreign exchange reserves, a widening current account deficit, an artificially overvalued local currency, an undisciplined fiscal balance and persistently high inflation.”
Even when Erdogan wins, Akbas said, “after years of low rate of interest policies which have contributed to high inflation and currency devaluation, he’ll likely have to adjust his economic policies to address the current economic crisis and attract investment.”