Members of the Wagner group look on from a military vehicle in Rostov-on-Don within the late evening of June 24, 2023.
Roman Romokhov | AFP | Getty Images
The recent Wagner mutiny has revealed deep divisions inside Russia’s armed forces, raising questions on what all of this implies for the mercenary group’s militants and the war in Ukraine.
In only a number of chaotic hours on June 24, the Wagner Group launched a mock rebellion, sending an armored convoy towards the Russian capital. This marked what many see as the most important challenge to the facility of Russian President Vladimir Putin in his greater than 20 years in power.
The short-lived revolt was abruptly called off, nevertheless, when Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to de-escalate the situation and ordered his fighters advancing on Moscow to return to their bases.
The fallout left many observers of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine with the query of what next for the long run of the Wagner Group, each in Europe and world wide.
Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank, he said within the assessment of the newest Russian offensive campaign, the Kremlin may seek to take formal control of the Wagner Group and transform it right into a state-owned enterprise, even though it isn’t yet clear whether that is the Kremlin’s intention.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with soldiers within the Kremlin in Moscow, June 27, 2023.
Mikhail Tereshchenko | AFP | Getty Images
“The nationalization of Wagner would likely help the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) in its efforts to integrate existing Wagner personnel into the regular Russian armed forces through contracts,” the ISW said on Thursday.
“The Kremlin has not indicated that it intends to nationalize Wagner, and it is feasible that Putin has not yet determined what plan of action to take to bring the group more under the Kremlin.”
Putin said on Tuesday that members of Wagner’s mercenary group were fully financed and fully supplied by the state. It was the primary time a long-time Russian president had publicly acknowledged that the group was financed by the Kremlin.
The ISW also noted that recent satellite images collected between June 15 and 27 show the lively construction of a speculated latest Wagner base in Asipowicze, Belarus. The location, the think tank said, is 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from a big Belarusian combined training ground.
He adds that Wagner’s personnel could also be deployed elsewhere in Belarus, nevertheless, and “there’s nothing particularly special” about Wagner’s potential base in Asipowicze.
Prigiozhin of the Wagner Group arrived in Belarus on Tuesday shortly after agreeing to leave Russia under a deal negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus is Russia’s ally in Putin’s war on Ukraine.
What next for the Wagner players?
Since then, the Pentagon he saidnevertheless, that the US still sees “some elements” of the Wagner Group in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.
“As for the long run of the Wagner Group, that is really a matter best answered by Russia, which in fact … also has operations in Africa in addition to Syria,” Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder told reporters on Thursday.
BANGUI, Central African Republic – March 22, 2023: The Russian flag hangs on the monument of Russian instructors in Bangui during a march in support of the presence of Russia and China within the Central African Republic. The Wagner Group has been operating within the country since 2018, supporting the federal government of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra and filling the safety vacuum left by France.
BARBARA DEBOUT/AFP via Getty Images
Asked at a press briefing what number of Wagner militants were currently lively in Ukraine after last weekend’s rebellion, Ryder said some units of the mercenary group were still within the country, but declined to provide figures.
“That is something we’ll proceed to listen to. It’s just too early to discuss it straight away,” Ryder said.
“My remark in all this evaluation of what might occur next is that there’s a danger that we cannot see wood for trees,” Christopher Granville, managing director of worldwide political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC.
It’s mandatory to deal with the battle in Ukraine, Granville said, noting that Putin’s political future is dependent upon the final result of the war. “That is really what it comes down to,” he added.
At best, Granville said the Wagner Group would likely be a “shadow of its former self” in Ukraine after the revolt.
Russia’s political crisis
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday dismissed questions on the political crisis.
Speaking at a press conference, Lavrov said that Moscow at all times comes out stronger and more resilient to any difficulties, Reuters reports. He added that if the West had doubts about Russia’s stability, that was its problem.
Elsewhere, after the Wagner rebellion, it’s alleged that Russian general Sergei Surovikin, deputy commander of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, was arrested The Associated Press reported Thursday, citing two people conversant in the case and assessments of Ukrainian intelligence.
CNBC was unable to independently confirm the reports. It comes amid intense speculation about whether Surovikin played a job in Wagner’s rise.
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Alexey Melnikov, secretary of the Russian Public Monitoring Committee, negative reports that Surovikin was held in Moscow’s Lefortovo reformatory or another pre-trial reformatory, according to the state news agency TASS.
James Nixey of London’s Chatham House think tank he said in a report outlining an enduring and just end to the war in Ukraine that potential political instability in Russia “mustn’t be a deterrent to pressing Ukraine’s domestic advantage.”
“Indeed, the Wagner Group’s attempted mutiny … showed that internal turmoil can provide Ukraine a tactical advantage,” Nixey said on Thursday.
His comments reflect the angle of other analysts monitoring Russia’s war in Ukraine, with some saying that Ukrainian forces might want to benefit from the confusion amongst Russian military leaders.