If America desires to end the war with Ukraine, step one is to take a look at the conflict through the eyes of the Kremlin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tanks and jets will not be powerful, but his tools of hybrid warfare are powerful enough to make the most of tensions across Europe, including Georgia, Moldova and the Western Balkans.
Despite Russia’s poor military record in Ukraine, Putin still has quite a few devices at his disposal to destabilize and divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine.
While Russia’s nuclear weapons are visible, the strongman is also waging a silent and invisible war, using energy, refugees and information to weaken the West.
The pinnacle of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, Sergei Naryshkin, accused the West last week of attempting to open a “second front” against Moscow in Georgia.
This got here after Russian officials seemed particularly disenchanted with the failure of the Georgian government to withstand public pressure to implement the Foreign Agents Act.
After the Georgian parliament passed a law on “transparency of foreign influences”, a wave of unprecedented anger swept through the country, prompting even the more apathetic strata of society to take to the streets of Tbilisi.
![Ukrainian medics](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/NYPICHPDPICT000008357965.jpg?w=1024)
Tens of 1000’s of demonstrators waved flags of the European Union and Georgia and chanted “No to Russian law”.
Pro-European Georgians are furious since the proposed laws is harking back to Russia’s 2012 foreign agents law, which Putin used to crack down on the media and civil society.
And European leaders stressed that the law would damage Georgia’s prospects for EU candidate status.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of staging one other scenario of a color revolution, while the top of state media RT Margarita Simonyan claimed that the protesters desired to open a second front of the conflict against Russia.
Moscow’s diplomatic Twitter account in Crimea went up to now as to accomplish that threaten Georgia with one other war.
Any political decision to isolate Georgia from the West could be a victory for Russia as Tbilisi’s already complex security situation would grow to be much more fragile.
Putin also has his eye on Moldova. The Russian defense ministry accused Ukraine in late February of plotting an armed provocation in Transnistria (the a part of Moldova that Russia “inspired” to declare independence twenty years ago); President Maia Sandu stated that Moscow was plotting to overthrow the federal government and reverse Moldova’s EU aspirations.
![Russian President Vladimir Putin](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/NYPICHPDPICT000009296161.jpg?w=1024)
Moldova was exceptionally successful last 12 months when it was granted EU candidate status. The Kremlin sees Moldova’s pro-EU government as a threat to its regional influence.
Sandu’s statement revealed a variety of sabotage operations that Russia hoped to perform.
In March, dozens of individuals took to the streets to affix protests organized by pro-Russian opposition politician Ilan Shor.
The Kremlin has capitalized on grievances which have intensified for the reason that government decided to chop off Russian energy supplies.
Such incidents are harking back to Georgia and Ukraine – where Russia has also used local actors to cause chaos and destabilization.
The Western Balkans is one other theater of Moscow’s games, and Putin is using an analogous scenario.
The president of Kosovo has revealed that Russia is using mercenaries from the infamous Wagner Group and Serbian paramilitary groups to wreak havoc in Kosovo and possibly take over territory.
While Serbia and Kosovo are conducting normalization talks led by the US and the EU, pro-Russian nationalist groups in Serbia are staging protests, accusing the country’s leadership of formally recognizing Kosovo.
![Belarusian volunteer](https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/NYPICHPDPICT000009421568.jpg?w=1024)
In Serbia, Putin maintains high influence through institutions corresponding to the Serbian Orthodox Church and the media. The Sputnik News channel has been operating in Belgrade for several years; Moscow also recently opened the state media channel RT.
In Bosnia, Russia is reinforcing the secessionist rhetoric of pro-Kremlin Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who has announced his intention to pass a law on foreign agents.
In Montenegro, Russia used the Serbian Orthodox Church to fuel instability by attacking the Serbs there, polarizing the country and undermining NATO.
As Russia’s losses in Ukraine proceed to mount, the Kremlin will proceed to make use of asymmetric measures to challenge and distract the West, with Georgia, Moldova and the Western Balkans being the subsequent battlefield.
While most of America’s attention is focused on operational development on the bottom, Russian military doctrine relies on hybrid warfare to advance its political and military goals.
Only when the West understands this will it begin to develop effective countermeasures to counter the Kremlin and its geopolitical ambitions.
Ivana Stradner is a researcher on the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy. Natia Seskuria is the founder and executive director of the Regional Institute for Security Studies in Georgia and a member of RUSI within the UK.