Goal hosted a free “Winter Wonderland” event in Latest York City to showcase the vacation season’s hottest toys. It’s an example of the additional effort that retailers are putting in to motivate shoppers.
Melissa Repko | CNBC
NEW YORK CITY — On a recent weekend in downtown Manhattan, an extended line of families with strollers and young children lined up to step inside Goal’s “Wonderland”
Santa’s helpers handed out free cookies. Mario and Luigi from Nintendo’s “Super Mario” video game posed for photos. A toy train winded through a miniature village comprised of the retailer’s gingerbread kits. And youngsters looked wide-eyed at a number of the season’s hottest toys, including a big Barbie Dreamhouse.
Getting people to show up was one thing. Turning the event right into a sale is one other entirely.
Goal’s pop-up event, which can travel to Dallas and Los Angeles, captures the lengths that retailers are going to this holiday season to try to motivate shoppers to open their wallets. Caution and uncertainty has coloured the outlook for the height shopping season as inflation, higher rates of interest, the return of student loan payments and consumers’ emphasis on experiences take a bite out of shoppers’ budgets for gifts and decor.
Holiday spending is predicted to grow at a more modest rate than lately, as customers hunt down deals. Holiday-related sales in November and December are expected to rise by 3% to 4% 12 months over 12 months, according to the National Retail Federation. That is a pointy drop from the pandemic years, but about in step with the pre-pandemic growth average of three.6%.
Over the past two weeks, many retailers, including Walmart, Nordstrom and Goal have said shoppers have made fewer store trips, postponed big purchases or held out for higher deals. This week, Lowe’s, Best Buy and Kohl’s all cut their sales forecasts. Even some retailers that raised their outlooks, akin to Dick’s Sporting Goods, referred to dynamics outside of their control that might dampen spending.
Marshal Cohen, chief industry advisor for market research firm Circana, said this 12 months will bring a “complex Christmas” for retailers.
The typical bank card balance is at a 10-year high. Fall weather was unseasonably warm in lots of parts of the country, delaying the necessity to spring for brand new sweaters or winter coats. And a gentle drip of Black Friday deals, began early in November at many retailers, has also delayed the push, as some shoppers bet that one of the best deals are still coming.
Early holiday sales have lagged, despite many early promotions that coincided with Amazon’s Prime deals event in October and Black Friday sales starting in November, according to the market research firm, which was formerly called The NPD Group. Holiday shoppers spent 7% less in dollars and 6% less in units from mid-October to mid-November compared with the year-ago period, Circana found.
“Consumers have type of held back,” Cohen said.
That delay in spending puts pressure on retailers for the remaining of the season. It has led retailers like Goal to pull out all of the stops this 12 months generate demand.
“You have to create impulse, ” he said. “You have to create the sense of urgency, and you’ve to create the will to buy.”
Barbie dolls (R) are displayed on the market ahead of Black Friday at a Walmart Supercenter on November 14, 2023 in Burbank, California.
Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Black Friday way of thinking
Amongst the most important themes this holiday season: shoppers are hungry for deals and willing to wait for them.
In an interview with CNBC last week, Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said customers are holding out until they feel like they will nab the bottom price.
“We’re seeing that buyers are leaning heavily into events, promotional type periods,” he said, adding that “a number of the periods before and after those events or promotional periods are weaker.”
Walmart saw weaker sales within the last two weeks of October compared to the remaining of the three-month period, a potentially worrying sign about consumer health, Rainey said. Yet he said sales began to pick up again in early November as Walmart debuted its Black Friday deals.
Footwear company Steve Madden saw the same dynamic. On an earnings call in early November, CEO Edward Rosenfeld said customers are sometimes showing up in a giant way only when there is a promotion.
“The shopping pattern is becoming more and more event driven,” he said, adding that “in between, the valleys have been a bit of deeper.”
He said the corporate hopes that as key shopping holidays akin to Black Friday and Cyber Monday kick in, that “customers will really show up.”
Lowe’s and Best Buy have noticed a deal-hunting mentality, too. Each firms cut their full-year sales forecasts after weaker-than-expected fiscal third quarters.
Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison said shoppers have postponed larger projects and major purchases, akin to latest fridges.
To counteract that, Ellison said the house improvement retailer has rolled out deep discounts on appliances and launched a latest lowest price guarantee.
“We’re going to have a sustained drumbeat of great offers for your complete holiday season, starting this week,” he said on a call with CNBC. “So there are numerous efforts going into creating a bit of bit more urgency around getting our customers to are available in for the vacation season.”
Discounting levels at Best Buy have increased from last 12 months and are even higher than before the pandemic, CEO Corie Barry said on an earnings call with investors. She said the corporate anticipates a season punctuated by moments when shoppers consider they will get one of the best prices.
“Since we’re preparing for a customer who may be very deal focused, we expect shopping patterns will look much more similar to historical holiday periods than they did last 12 months with customers shopping activity focused on Black Friday week, Cyber Monday and the last two weeks of December,” she said.
Shoppers at Bloomingdale’s stores and on the corporate’s website can browse a set of purple suit jackets, sequin dresses, gourmet candies and even candy-themed cuff-links inspired by the “Wonka” movie.
Melissa Repko | CNBC
A little bit of razzle dazzle
Together with deals, retailers are attempting to grab customers’ attention — and dollars — with special events, limited-time offers and eye-catching merchandise.
Some retailers, akin to Best Buy, are attempting to rush shoppers to hit the “buy” button by dangling short-term sales. The patron electronics retailer debuted “Best Buy Drops,” flash sales events through its app that feature short-term price cuts on limited edition items or popular product releases.
Goal, Ulta Beauty and LVMH-owned Sephora have had “Deals of the Day” with popular brands or gift items which can be only discounted for twenty-four hours.
Others have tried to attract shoppers with fun and free experiences, as they bet that may put consumers within the way of thinking to spend.
Macy’s is carrying a special collection of Disney merchandise for the vacations. Customers also can virtually try on Disney princess dresses in a “magic mirror” at the corporate’s flagship store in Latest York City.
Macy’s
At Macy’s flagship store in Latest York City’s Herald Square, shoppers can twirl in Disney princess dresses in an augmented reality-powered “magic mirror” before shopping a special collection of Disney jewelry, toys, apparel and more that is available online and across its stores.
In mid-December, all Macy’s stores will host beauty-themed events with DJs, free makeovers and fragrance bottle engraving. In any respect stores, customers will find stations where they will create their very own beauty gift sets.
With special events and seasonal displays, the department store wants to “bring the retail-tainment factor” and “create a bit of little bit of a celebration on our floor,” Chief Merchandising Officer Nata Dvir said.
Macy’s higher-end department store, Bloomingdale’s, is carrying a colourful collection of chocolates, candy-themed cuff links, purple blazers, sequin dresses and more inspired by “Wonka,” the prequel movie that debuts in December.
As Nordstrom sees slower traffic, the retailer is trying to draw shoppers with extra incentives and more convenient options, Chief Merchandising Officer Jamie Nordstrom said. Holiday shoppers get extra rewards points on beauty purchases. The corporate also just began rolling out free two-day shipping to all customers in greater than 20 markets.
He said Nordstrom can stand out with popular brands, superior customer support and quicker shipping in a season that will be stressful.
“The faster we are able to get that merchandise to the client, the simpler their life goes to be,” he said.
Across the industry, retailers hope novelty and flash will get reluctant consumers to spend greater than they’ve been.
Goal is trying to emphasize convenience and newness this 12 months, together with value. The corporate’s “Wonderland” pop-ups showed off the chain’s top toys for the vacation season. Kids could scan their favorites, which got compiled right into a shoppable wish list parents could print off or email to themselves.
Melissa Fleury, 27, of Brooklyn brought her one-year-old daughter and four-year-old nephew to the event. Yet thus far, she said she hasn’t done much holiday shopping.
“Often, I even have half of my list done,” she said.
She said she has trimmed her budget for gifts from $1,000 last 12 months to a maximum of $800 this 12 months. She has kept tabs on one of the best sales by swapping suggestions together with her aunt and sister. And she or he said she is spending slowly, deliberately and only when she spots deals.
“The worth has to be right,” she said.
— CNBC’s Robert Hum contributed to this report.
For more on Black Friday sales, try NBC Select’s recent roundup of the best Black Friday deals.