German soldiers participate within the “Griffin Storm” bilateral Lithuanian-German military exercise on the General Silvestras Zukauskas training ground in Pabrade, Lithuania, June 26, 2023.
Petras Malukas | AFP | Getty’s paintings
The results of the short-lived armed revolt of the Wagner Group caused alarm within the European Baltic states.
A weekend of chaos posed what many see as the best challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power in greater than 20 years in power.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the infamous head of Wagner’s private mercenary group, launched a sham rebellion on Saturday by sending an armored convoy towards the Russian capital.
Nonetheless, the 24-hour revolt was abruptly canceled under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Prigozhin agreed to de-escalate the situation and ordered his fighters advancing on Moscow to return to their bases.
Speaking on Tuesday along with his Latvian and Estonian counterparts, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said the pace of Wagner’s rebellion underscored the strategic importance of strengthening NATO’s eastern flank.
“I believe that as well as to showing the true political instability in Russia, in addition they showed a further factor, which is the speed of mobilization of troops in Russia and moving around its territory,” Landsbergis said at a press conference in Paris.
“The borders of our countries, all three of ours, are only a couple of hundred kilometers from the motion, which implies it could take eight to ten hours for them to suddenly appear somewhere in Belarus, somewhere near Lithuania, somewhere near the Estonian border. … and that offers you an idea of how we’re [view] this case.”
Germany has offered to permanently send around 4,000 troops to Lithuania to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.
Petras Malukas | AFP | Getty’s paintings
Landsbergis warned that Russia’s political crisis “creates a more volatile and unpredictable environment” within the Baltic region. “Due to this fact, our request has at all times been that we take the defense and in addition the deterrence of the Baltic region very seriously.”
On Monday, Germany offered to send around 4,000 troops permanently to Lithuania to bolster NATO’s eastern flank.
Ahead of the NATO summit to be held within the Lithuanian capital on July 11-12, Landsbergis said the German offer to permanently station troops within the country didn’t mean that other areas must be disregarded.
Standing alongside French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, Landsbergis said the French government might be an “invaluable partner” in strengthening the air defense capabilities of the Baltic states.
Diversionary activities from Belarus ‘can’t be ruled out’
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who met on Monday with Lithuanian and German troops training together in Pabrade, Lithuania, repeated that the military alliance is prepared “to defend every inch of Allied territory.”
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February has already fueled concerns in regards to the regional security of the Baltic region. That is because, despite being members of each NATO and the European Union, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania’s geography makes them vulnerable.
Like Ukraine, all of them share a typical border with Russia. It’s price noting that Latvia and Lithuania also share a southern border with Belarus, Russia’s ally within the Kremlin’s war with Ukraine.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who met with Lithuanian and German soldiers training together in Pabrade, Lithuania on Monday, reiterated that the military alliance is prepared “to defend every inch of Allied territory.”
Image Alliance | Image Alliance | Getty’s paintings
A jet linked to Prigozhin Wagner, a former ally of Russia’s longtime president and a person often known as “Putin’s cook”, has been reported arrived in Belarus from Russia on Tuesday. It wasn’t immediately clear if the mercenary chief was on board, though.
Mario Bikarski and Federica Reccia, Russia and Ukraine analysts on the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC that Prigozhin’s role in Belarus is unlikely to pose a direct threat to NATO members.
“Nonetheless, making an allowance for the use by Prigozhin and the Wagner group of hybrid warfare techniques prior to now – including interference within the US presidential election – it can’t be ruled out that they coordinate sabotage and sabotage activities with the territory of Belarus,” they said.
A spokesman for the Belarusian Foreign Ministry was not immediately available for comment.
Regional security concerns
Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics described the Wagner rise up for example of “one evil fighting evil”.
“We want time to assess how it will affect the inner situation in Russia, but additionally how it’s going to affect regional security,” Rinkevics said on Tuesday.
The minister added that the Latvian government listened “very fastidiously” to Putin’s defiant speech on Monday night, the primary statement by a Russian president because the Wagner Group’s attempted mutiny.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with the country’s top security officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (3L), in Moscow, June 26, 2023.
Gavril Grigorov | AFP | Getty’s paintings
Putin’s suggestion that Wagner fighters be allowed to travel safely to Belarus was one other regional security issue that needs to be taken seriously, Rinkevics said.
In a separate statement to CNBC, a spokesman for the Latvian Foreign Ministry said the federal government was closely following internal developments in Russia.
“The recent instability is an internal Russian affair and the results of Russia’s policies and decisions [Vladimir] Putin and his ruling elites. But this makes Russia increasingly unpredictable, and Latvia as a neighboring country needs to remain vigilant,” the spokesman said.
They added that confirmation of the presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus could be a further argument for a “significant strengthening” of sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and strengthening the safety of EU and NATO member states bordering Belarus and Russia.
“The previous few days and the week have been really interesting,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said on Tuesday.
“Be honest too, Putin is chargeable for this because he began the aggression against Ukraine,” Tsahkna said, adding that the priority was to “stand together” and concentrate on supporting Kiev.
The Russian Foreign Ministry was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.