The flags of the United States and Taiwan displayed on phone screens are visible on this multiple illustration photo taken in Poland on August 4, 2022.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
The meeting of the Taiwanese leader with the speaker of the US House of Representatives will provoke a strong reaction from China, said Anna Ashton, director of China for Eurasia Group.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is probably going to meet her face to face Kevin McCarthy when she is making a transit visit through Los Angeles next week. Tsai is currently on a 10-day trip to allies in Central America, Belize and Guatemala.
The meeting with McCarthy has not been officially confirmed.
“The fact is that McCarthy is third in line for the presidency. Such a meeting can be the most vital official meeting between the U.S. and the incumbent president of Taiwan on U.S. soil,” Aston told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.
“Beijing has already warned of its opposition to this meeting, and we could see a backlash, at the same time as big as the backlash after Pelosi’s visit.”
Crossing Chinese red lines by the US could lead China to a situation where it feels compelled to use force and act more assertively.
Anna Ashton
China Director at the Eurasia Group
Thorny relations
US-China relations falling, analysts warn. Tsai and McCarthy’s meeting next week is probably going to add to already rising tensions.
China has repeatedly said that the Taiwan issue is an internal issue. Beijing claims the self-governing island is an element of its territory and argues that Taiwan shouldn’t have the right to conduct foreign relations.
The Biden administration was keen to downplay Tsai’s recent transit, calling it “unofficial.”
“In all previous transits, she has met with members of Congress in addition to state and native officials and made public appearances,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. at a press briefing on Wednesday.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry addressed strong words to the US
“The journey will not be a lot a “transit” as an attempt to find breakthroughs and promote “Taiwan independence,” the spokeswoman said. Mao Ning, he said Wednesday at a regular press conference. “The issue will not be China’s overreaction, but the US’s blatant plotting and support for ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.”
Crossing red lines
Beijing has consistently warned of this Taiwan is the “first red line” which must not be exceeded.
Ashton identified that it is vital to do not forget that China has often said that it prefers long-term peaceful reunification with Taiwan.
“Timing is in China’s favor and at all times has been – apart from the undeniable fact that the US has turn out to be a little less predictable,” the analyst said.
“The crossing of Chinese red lines by the US could push China into a situation where it can feel compelled to use force and act more assertively because it protects what it sees as its interests from US attempts to block them.”