Participants in an indication against arms shipments to Ukraine stand in front of a carnival statue of Russian President Putin during a bloodbath in Düsseldorf.
Image Alliance | Image Alliance | Getty’s paintings
Twice as many Europeans now see Russia as an adversary than before the war, but almost half are unsure whether Ukraine will defeat its adversary.
IN multi-country study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), nearly two-thirds of respondents said they now consider Russia to be an adversary or rival – twice as many as in 2021. Public opinion varies widely across the continent.
Majorities in Denmark, Poland, Sweden and Germany see Moscow as an adversary, while only 37% of those polled in Italy and 17% in Bulgaria feel the same.
Just one-third of respondents said Ukraine’s victory in the war was likely or highly likely, while nearly two-fifths (22%) were undecided and nearly half considered it unlikely or highly unlikely.
The survey, which incorporates public opinion from eleven EU Member States – Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – also found that almost all Europeans at the moment are in favor of strengthening the EU’s defense capabilities, as an alternative of counting on the US
Almost three-quarters (74%) of respondents said the EU should take steps to secure its own defense strategy, with this view being most pronounced in Hungary, the Netherlands and Germany. Only 8% said it was unnecessary as the US will all the time protect Europe.
Europeans want the EU to grow to be more independent in foreign policy and construct its own defense capabilities.
Jan Puglierin
senior colleague, European Council on Foreign Relations
The authors of the report said the findings indicate an increased need for self-reliance by Europeans, especially after Russia’s full invasion of its neighbor.
“The principal takeaway from our survey is that Europeans want the EU to grow to be more independent in foreign policy and construct its own defense capabilities,” said Jana Puglierin, co-author and senior lecturer.
“These aren’t recent demands by the EU or its member state leaders, but they’ve been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and rising tensions between the US and China.”
Puglierin added that this could possibly be a “decisive moment” for the EU and its prospects of moving away from dependence on the US and towards its own political positions.
Weakening EU-US interdependence
The report “Keep America Close, Russia Far, China Far: How Europeans Navigate in a Competitive World” also examined the public’s response to changing relations with the US and China.
This signaled a harmonization of relations between Europe and the US since the previous poll, which coincided with the presidency of Donald Trump in the US.
Majorities in Denmark and Poland, as well as many in the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany, said they now see their transatlantic partner as Europe’s “ally” – a major increase from 2021, when no country saw Washington as “sharing European interests and values” “.
Opinions of Europeans on the likelihood of chosen geopolitical events in the next two years.
ECFR
Nevertheless, concerns have been raised a few potential second Trump presidency – greater than half of respondents said such an event would weaken relations with the US
Europeans were more optimistic about China than some bloc leaders, with an average of 43% saying they consider Beijing an indispensable partner, and only a fifth of respondents believing that Europe’s trade and investment relationship with China carries more risks than advantages .
The results of these surveys bring European public opinion closer to that of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who see China as a strategic and global partner. Meanwhile, others in Brussels have taken a more hawkish political stance, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen talking about the need to cut back risk in the EU’s relationship with Beijing.
[European leaders should] start an energetic conversation together with your audience to arrange them for various geopolitical scenarios.
Pawel Zerka
senior colleague, European Council on Foreign Relations
Most Europeans also said that their country should stay out of any possible conflict with Taiwan. Nevertheless, the prospect of China supplying arms to Russia was a red line for a lot of and a reason to impose sanctions – even when it will hurt Western economies.
Concerns have also been raised about China’s economic agenda. On average, two-thirds of those surveyed were uncomfortable with the prospect of Chinese ownership of key infrastructure such as bridges and ports, as well as technology corporations and national newspapers.
A co-author of the report said European leaders should see the spectrum of opinion as an opportunity to have interaction in an energetic conversation with the public to arrange them for possible future geopolitical scenarios.
“If European leaders were to base their actions on the expectations of the public, they’d not give you the chance to arrange for highly destructive scenarios – with potentially devastating consequences for European security,” said senior researcher Paweł Zerka.