The brand new Leopard 2 A7V heavy battle tank, the most advanced version of the German tank.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images | News Getty’s paintings
Ukraine has repeatedly asked its Western allies to supply it with battle tanks to help it fight Russia, but to this point its Western allies have seemed reluctant to accomplish that, fearing that providing offensive weapons could further provoke Moscow.
Nonetheless, experts note that after months of pressure on authorities reminiscent of Berlin and Washington to provide such equipment, that reluctance may change, and a few announcements may be made when Ukrainian and Western officials meet this week in Germany to discuss the situation in the country. urgent military needs.
“I understand that a deal has principally been worked out,” John E. Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine, told CNBC on Monday.
“We all know that the straggler here was the Germans and it seems that the Germans have been convinced that they’ll allow other countries which have Leopard tanks to send them to Ukraine – I’m sure of it – and I also think it may be very likely, but not I’m so sure Germany will send some leopards as well,” he said.
It has been almost a 12 months since Moscow launched its ill-fated invasion of its neighbor, and the war shows no signs of ending any time soon. Russian forces proceed to largely occupy territory in the east and south of the country, where brutal, intense fighting takes place and far of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure is bombed every day.
While Ukraine achieved some notable victories on the battlefield, most notably with the Kharkiv counter-offensive in northeastern Ukraine that drove Russian forces out of the region, the war took on a devastating rhythm with the onset of winter, with Donetsk and the Bakhmut area at the epicenter of hostilities comparable to World War I. world.
Spring Offensives
Either side are believed to be preparing for brand spanking new spring offensives and there are fears that Russia intends to mobilize hundreds of men to fight in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled he had the stomach for an extended war.
Ukraine has repeatedly asked its allies for more weapons, and these requests have largely been answered: US, UK and NATO allies in Europe and beyond have sent Ukraine a big selection of military equipment, from ammunition and artillery and air defense systems to infantry fighting vehicles from the United States, France and Germany promised in early January to deliver the Bradley, AMX-10 RC and Marder respectively.
Nevertheless, tanks are one other matter with the West clearly being cautious about sending Ukraine what it wants – namely US M1 Abrams tanks and German Leopard 2s, which the West believes will give it a major advantage over Russia and might be a giant step up from Soviet-era tanks, on which it now relies on, amid concerns about further tensions with Russia and the logistical challenges of providing modern western tanks for training and maintenance.
Last week, the White House again refused to answer the query of whether the US would specifically supply Ukraine with essential battle tanks.
American soldiers fire an M1 Abrams MBT.
Image Alliance | Image Alliance | Getty’s paintings
The tank impasse seemed to be broken when the UK announced over the weekend that it would send 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. This made it the first country to send Western-made battle tanks to Kiev, while countries reminiscent of Poland, Finland and the Baltic states have also openly supported the re-export of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine from their very own stockpiles, but most significantly, they need Germany’s permission for this. so.
President Zelensky thanked the UK for its support, saying the decision “is not going to only strengthen us on the battlefield, but additionally send the right signal to other partners.”
Polish President Andrzej Duda reiterated his calls for Ukraine to adopt more Western tanks as he spoke on Tuesday during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
“We hope and take a look at to organize more support for Ukraine, so we hope that there might be several allies, partners who will give Ukraine tanks [like] Leopard tanks, Challenger tanks from Great Britain, so we hope that the manufacturer of those tanks, Germany, will take part in what I feel is a excellent idea,” he said.
For its part, Germany remained silent about tanks despite increasing pressure and criticism on this regard. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall was trying to meet rising expectations over the tanks decision on Monday, with the company’s chief executive telling a German newspaper that Leopard 2s from Germany’s industrial reserves wouldn’t be ready for any delivery before 2024.
With the abrupt resignation of German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht on Monday, her successor Boris Pistorius is probably going to make the decision on tanks a priority.
Time is the whole lot
The subject of tanks is anticipated to dominate discussions as officials from Ukraine and allied countries meet in Germany on Friday for a gathering of the “Ukrainian Contact Group on
Analysts say ahead of each Ukraine’s and Russia’s expected spring offensives, the country now needs heavy weapons greater than ever, and tank transfers and delivery timing may very well be critical.
“I feel Germany will eventually break down and deliver these Leopard 2 tanks,” Samuel Ramani, a geopolitical analyst and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told CNBC on Monday, noting that there was “a general move to supply heavier artillery and tanks to the Ukrainian army.” “.
Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers drive a T-72 tank on the outskirts of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, December 21, 2022.
Sameer Al-doumy | AFP | Getty’s paintings
Ramani believed that the delivery of recent Western tanks “would help to negate certainly one of Russia’s critical benefits on this war, which was an awesome advantage by way of artillery fire”, but said the timing of any deliveries could be crucial.
“Time is interesting. Will they arrive in time for the spring counter-offensive, or will they arrive when Ukraine shows more momentum on the battlefield and proves that it is moving stronger,” he asked.
“Ukraine currently has a resource dilemma between maintaining forces in Bakhmut and restarting and recalibrating forces for a counter-offensive,” he noted. If the tank delivery had taken longer, Ukraine may need opted to stop its forces in Bakhmut to fight the Russian advance into the city.
“Alternatively, they might reduce their presence in Bakhmut and provides some land to the Russians in exchange for using that extra equipment to launch a faster, more comprehensive counter-offensive,” Ramani noted.