A pharmacist delivers a COVID-19 booster dose at a Chicago CVS store.
Antonio Perez | Tribune News Service | Getty Images
A new round of Covid vaccines is coming to the U.S. this fall — but many Americans may not roll up their sleeves and take one.
That is largely because pandemic fatigue, the idea that Covid is “over” and confusion over personal risk levels could deter some people from getting a further shot, experts in public health and health policy told CNBC.
related investing news
![These health-care companies see opportunity ahead from Alzheimer's drug approval](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107268377-1688751191488-gettyimages-1421992437-ALZHEIMERSDRUG.jpeg?v=1690553761)
But they said public health officials and health-care providers could potentially increase uptake of the new vaccines by communicating a new and straightforward message this fall: Covid vaccines are likely going to turn into a routine part of protecting your health moving forward.
In September, vaccine manufacturers Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are slated to deliver new single-strain Covid shots targeting the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, probably the most immune-evasive strain of the virus thus far.
It’ll be a “very uphill battle” to get people to take those jabs, especially given the sluggish uptake of probably the most recent shots that rolled out, said Jen Kates, senior vp of the health policy research organization KFF.
Only about 17% of the U.S. population — around 56 million people — have received Pfizer and Moderna’s bivalent Covid vaccines since they were approved last September, in response to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Bivalent means they aim two strains of the virus.
Lower than half of adults 65 and older have received a bivalent shot, while rates for all other age groups sit at around 20%.
Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax haven’t provided exact estimates for what they expect uptake of their new shots to look like.
But a Pfizer spokesperson said overall the corporate expects 24% of the population, or 79 million people, to receive vaccine doses in 2023, which incorporates each primary doses and boosters. A Novavax spokesperson said the corporate has began “manufacturing in danger” and is “stockpiling enough material to support the upcoming launch for the season.”
All corporations have noted that they’re preparing for the federal government to shift vaccine distribution to the private market, meaning manufacturers will sell their updated shots on to health-care providers at higher prices. Previously, the federal government purchased vaccines directly from manufacturers at a reduction to distribute to the general public at no cost.
Regardless of that shift, experts say vaccine uptake may not look much different from that of the bivalent boosters. Here’s why.
Pandemic fatigue, confusion
Fatigue over the pandemic and the overall belief that Covid is “over” could potentially hinder the uptake of new shots this fall, experts said.
A June poll conducted by Gallup found that 64% of Americans think the pandemic is over within the U.S. and only 18% are fearful about contracting the virus.
Ipsos and Axios released a survey with similar findings in May, the identical month the U.S. ended the national Covid public health emergency amid a downward trend in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
But Covid remains to be killing people each day and is not going away anytime soon. Meanwhile, many Americans have gotten weary of recommendations for cover. That features masking, testing for the virus and getting vaccinated.
“People have essentially moved on, especially given how long the pandemic has been,” Dr. Kartik Cherabuddi, a professor of medicine on the University of Florida, told CNBC.
He said that is why it is important to emphasize how people will personally profit from receiving a further vaccine this fall.
But there’s a fair an even bigger problem: Personal Covid risks and advantages from getting one other shot have been a serious area of confusion for Americans, which could also hamper the uptake.
The confusion stems from the proven fact that “risk levels aren’t the identical for everyone within the population immediately,” and almost everyone has a special circumstance, in response to Dr. Brad Pollock, chair of UC Davis Health’s department of public health sciences.
“It’s this perception of the person. ‘Why should I get one other booster? What is my risk? Why should I do it? Is it really price doing now, or later?'” Pollock told CNBC. “I feel everybody’s confused. And once they’re confused, they probably will do nothing until there’s more clarity.”
Safeway pharmacist Ashley McGee fills a syringe with the Pfizer COVID-19 booster vaccination at a vaccination booster shot clinic on October 01, 2021 in San Rafael, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
The CDC hasn’t beneficial the updated shots to specific groups yet because they have not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. But even after eligibility guidelines are formalized, confusion could potentially remain.
Those at high risk of severe Covid, resembling older adults and immunocompromised people, could potentially profit greater than the overall population.
But even those patients have different circumstances: Some high-risk people can have recently received a fifth vaccine dose, which could beat back once they can get the updated vaccine. Health officials normally recommend spacing out vaccinations over a selected number of months.
Meanwhile, some healthy adults can have 4 doses but could also be unsure about getting one other since the profit of a fifth dose for those less vulnerable to severe Covid still is not clear, Pollock said.
Individuals who recently had Covid may additionally must wait longer to get a new shot in order that they can maximize the protection they get from vaccination — a suggestion made when the bivalent boosters rolled out.
But that could get much more complicated this fall, in response to Cherabuddi. He said testing for Covid has dropped to new lows over the past 12 months, “so we do not even know who has been infected in the previous couple of months.”
Those individualized circumstances will likely make it tougher for each health officials and health-care providers to convey clear messages concerning the updated vaccines this fall, Cherabuddi and other experts said.
The Health and Human Services Department didn’t immediately reply to CNBC’s request for comment.
Vaccine manufacturers have noted that they may proceed to interact in a spread of outreach efforts to encourage the general public to get vaccinated.
A new message may increase rates
But KFF’s Kates said health officials and providers could potentially increase uptake if they convey that Covid shots are “likely going to be more of a routine part of our health care going forward.”
The FDA and CDC are hoping to transition toward a flu shot-like model for Covid vaccines, meaning people will get a single jab every 12 months that’s updated annually to focus on the newest variant expected to flow into in the autumn and winter.
A person walks past an urgent care facility offering flu shots in New York, the USA, on Dec. 7, 2022.
Michael Nagle | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
Kates said that schedule goals to simplify the method of getting vaccinated. For instance, it would likely make it easier for Americans to recollect to get a new vaccine every 12 months and permit them to receive one with their flu shot through the same doctor’s visit.
“People could be more open to creating this a standard part of what they do,” Kates said. “That contrasts with what we have seen previously where there are different vaccines, different timing, different age groups and something new to contemplate every few months.”
There’s still uncertainty about whether the U.S. will update and distribute new shots on an annual basis, in response to Kates.
Advisors to the FDA have raised concerns about shifting to yearly Covid vaccines, noting that it’s unclear if the virus is seasonal like the flu.
A KFF poll released in April suggests that an annual schedule may boost uptake: Greater than half of the general public said they’d likely get an annual Covid shot if it was offered like an annual flu shot. That features a few third who can be “very likely” to accomplish that.
Pfizer similarly told CNBC in May that an annual Covid schedule could encourage more people to vaccinate annually. The corporate is preparing to shift to that schedule by developing “next-generation” versions of its shot, which aim to increase the protection people get from the virus to a full 12 months.
Industrial market may not change much
It’s unclear whether the U.S.’s shift to the industrial market will affect the uptake of the new vaccines.
It could not change much for insured Americans. Private insurers and the government-run Medicare and Medicaid programs are required to cover all shots beneficial by the CDC, meaning most of the insured will proceed to get Covid shots at no cost.
Federal and company programs are aiming to fill the gap for the 25 million to 30 million uninsured adults within the U.S. That features the Biden administration’s Bridge Access Program, which plans to offer free Covid vaccines to uninsured people through 2024.
Kates said it’s “still hard to gauge” what number of uninsured people will profit from those efforts.
She also noted that a shift in access could potentially lower uptake among the many group. “Any person could be fearful that they will not get their vaccine covered or they’ll be asked to pay for it when they can not afford it. That could be an enormous deterrent,” Kates said.
But Dr. Helen Chu, an epidemiology professor on the University of Washington School of Medicine, said the uninsured have continued to lag behind their insured counterparts in terms of vaccine uptake even “when shots were freely available to them.”
A KFF survey conducted in March found that only 22% of uninsured Americans under 65 were each vaccinated and boosted against Covid, compared with 44% of insured people in that age group. One other KFF survey from mid-2021 showed similar findings.
“I’m undecided that an individual’s insurance status was necessarily the motive force of the low uptake we have seen, or whether it would be the motive force of potentially low uptake in the autumn as well,” Chu told CNBC.